Bitcoin surged by 4% last night, but I am more concerned about the epic rebound driven by the "Stealth QE" in 2026.

Last night, Bitcoin broke through multiple levels in a short period, with a 24-hour increase of 3.91%. This seemingly ordinary market fluctuation could be the prologue to a much larger script—while everyone is watching the red and green candlesticks on the screen, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is quietly rewriting the future of cryptocurrencies.
The market in 2025 has taught us one thing: don’t be blinded by short-term gains and losses. Behind the bleak data of a 6% decline for the year and over 20% drop in Q4, a structural rebound driven by "Stealth QE" is quietly brewing.
The Fed’s "tough talk" versus its actual actions
Although Powell and others continue to emphasize "inflation is under control" in public, the New York Fed has planned reserve management purchases of about $40 billion from December 12 to January 14. This move aligns with Arthur Hayes’ warning— the U.S. Treasury and the Fed are conducting a bloodless "money printing" through the "Standing Repo Facility (SRF)."
More importantly, the Fed has explicitly stated that quantitative tightening (QT) will officially end in December 2025. Historical data never lies:
• In 2013, the Fed expanded its balance sheet, marking the start of the Bitcoin bull market
• In 2020-2021, the Fed’s aggressive balance sheet expansion drove Bitcoin from $3,800 to $69,000
• In 2022, balance sheet reduction led BTC into a bear market
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently at a critical resistance level. Since 2015, whenever DXY hovers at resistance, it has been a golden window for buying risk assets. After DXY breaks below this zone in early 2025, it is now testing from below—this is exactly the macro backdrop that crypto bulls have been dreaming of.
Institutional "schizophrenia": ETFs are running, whales are eating
The capital flow in 2025 presents a bizarre picture: net ETF inflows of $22.94 billion in the first 10 months, but net outflows of $3.16 billion and $1.64 billion in November and December respectively. Retail investors panic-sell, while another group quietly accumulates.
MicroStrategy (now Strategy) is a typical example. As of January 11, 2026, the company holds 687,410 BTC, worth about $51.8 billion, with an unrealized profit of $13.63 billion. More critically, they continue to increase their holdings—from 528,000 BTC in April 2025 to 687,000 BTC, even as the average cost rises from $67,500 to $75,300.
This "retail selling, institutional buying" divergence is vividly reflected in on-chain indicators. Short-term holders have spent over 70 days with the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) below 1, indicating short-term traders are "cutting losses." This is a classic feature of historic bottoms—smart money accumulates in panic, while dumb money flees in fear.
The divergence between ETF outflows and ongoing institutional accumulation reveals a brutal truth: when prices fall, retail-driven ETF withdrawals occur, but core institutional investors are positioning for a rebound.
On-chain data: Bitcoin is "on sale"
Currently, Bitcoin trades in the $88,000–$91,000 range, with multiple on-chain metrics indicating it is approaching its historic "value zone":
Dynamic NVT ratio and valuation models like Bitcoin Yardstick point to the same conclusion—BTC is undervalued. The pullback at the end of 2025 weakens the "profit address ratio," with long-term holders selling more, but this also creates a more attractive entry window for medium- and long-term capital.
It’s worth noting that MicroStrategy’s average cost basis is $75,353. When market prices approach or fall below this level, it’s akin to buying at "wholesale prices"—often an excellent medium- to long-term entry point historically.
2026: From "Stealth" to "Overt" Rebound
Overall, three major clues are converging:
Macroscopically, the Fed ends QT and initiates "Stealth QE," reopening the liquidity faucet. The U.S. government’s annual $2 trillion deficit financing will force the Fed to continue injecting liquidity via tools like SRF, effectively amounting to QE.
Institutionally, short-term holders are exiting at a loss, while long-term holders remain steadfast. ETF short-term outflows cannot hide the long-term strategic positioning of institutions.
Valuation-wise, on-chain indicators show BTC in its value zone, with an attractive risk-reward ratio.
Historical experience suggests Bitcoin’s average first-quarter return is about 50%. As the Fed’s policy shifts from "controlling inflation" to "supporting growth" in 2026, combined with ongoing accumulation by institutions amid volatility, Bitcoin’s "strategic rebound" is not just a price correction but a structural opportunity shaped by monetary policy changes and institutional behavior shifts.
Of course, risks remain. Regulatory uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility that "Stealth QE" underperforms could introduce variables. But for investors who can withstand volatility, this may be the best deployment window since 2022.
Do you think Bitcoin can break through $100,000 in 2026? Or is this just a "dead cat bounce"?
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments—are these "conspiracies" by institutions or macro "positive signals"? If this article helped you understand the market logic, please like and share to help more people seize the opportunities brought by "Stealth QE"!
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