Why is this prophet obsessed with a Bitcoin short? Will the market really drop to $56,000?

In the cryptocurrency market, various “prophet-like” analysts frequently emerge. They occasionally predict market trends accurately, but such achievements are often fleeting. Roman Trading is one of the recent analysts hailed as a prophet—he confidently predicted a retracement to $80,000 when Bitcoin broke through the $120,000 high, and he successfully hit this target by the end of 2025.

However, history offers us a warning: every renowned prophet may ultimately become a laughingstock due to their obsession with a single prediction. PlanB at the end of 2021 and the consistently bearish CAPO have both enjoyed moments of reverence, only to be heavily questioned when the market turned. Will Roman Trading also be doomed to the same fate?

The Latest Outlook of the Bearish Prophet

According to Roman Trading’s latest technical analysis, he believes the current upward trend fully conforms to historical patterns. In his view, the MACD and RSI indicators have already rebounded from oversold regions, indicating that the market is resetting technical signals and preparing for the next decline.

His specific forecast is: Bitcoin will first test around $100,000, then initiate a larger downward move targeting $56,000—implying roughly a 40% drop from the high. In his logic, such sideways consolidation phenomena are common in history and are a necessary prelude to major adjustments.

“The indicators are resetting, preparing for further decline,” Roman Trading stated. “After a 40% drop from the all-time high, such range-bound oscillations are entirely normal.”

What Does Shrinking Trading Volume Reveal?

Another supporting argument for this prediction comes from the obvious weakness in market trading activity. According to data from a futures platform, Bitcoin futures trading volume has declined by 90% from its peak, and options open interest has shrunk by 85%. Such changes are typically interpreted as signals of decreased market participation and waning investor interest.

Last year, due to rampant high-leverage trading, the crypto market frequently experienced large-scale forced liquidations. Now, the sharp contraction in trading volume indicates that market participants are becoming more cautious, which could also set the stage for upcoming volatility.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $96,200, with a 24-hour increase of 0.65%, and a daily trading volume of approximately $1.52 billion. In this price range, the market seems to be waiting for a clear directional signal.

The Fate of the Prophet

However, it is worth noting that every analyst once dubbed a “prophet” has ultimately failed due to over-commitment to a particular trend. Roman Trading’s current firm bearish forecast may face the same risk—once the market breaks through the technical resistance he envisions, his credibility will be tested again. The market always has the potential to surpass expectations.