#美国就业数据不及预期 Recent signals from Federal Reserve officials indicate that rate cuts will indeed be pursued this year, but not in a rush. The latest remarks from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee have essentially set the tone—shifting is the main direction, provided that inflation and employment data align.

The key point here is a "but." Investors expecting a significant rate cut as early as March may be disappointed. The Fed's current stance is clear: policy adjustments will be gradual and cautious, avoiding sudden moves.

What does this mean for traders? In the coming months, the market will exhibit high volatility. The US dollar index and bond yields will fluctuate around data releases until a clear path is established.

Three key time points to watch:

• The Fed's statement at the end of January—pay attention to any subtle changes in official language
• Inflation data in the following months—assess whether the downward trend is sustainable
• Global geopolitical developments—whether energy prices will be pressured as a result

Ultimately, the story of rate cuts this year is still unfolding, but each step depends heavily on economic data. Investors need to stay flexible and be ready to adjust strategies based on the signals from data releases.