Technical analysis often proves more honest than news. Looking at the four-hour chart of RIVER, several details are worth pondering.

The price is currently hovering around 22.2588, which appears relatively stable on the surface, but the Bollinger Bands are flashing warning signs. The upper band is at 29.3, and the lower band is at 16.0, and this gap is quite alarming. Usually, when Bollinger Bands are this wide, it indicates a sharp increase in volatility, and the price is likely to experience a strong one-way move next. The problem is, although the current price is close to the lower band and seems strong, it has failed to stabilize each time it pushes toward the middle band at 22.6990, being pushed back each time. This is a typical sign of "the last gasp of a strong bow," with no strength left to advance.

The signals from the capital flow are even more interesting. The trading volume is 11.21 million USD, which sounds decent, but behind this is a net outflow of 200,000, and the order ratio is still negative. To put it simply: those holding chips are secretly selling during this small rebound, while retail investors' buying enthusiasm is clearly weaker than the sellers' resolve. This is a classic script of "stagnation at high levels, main players distributing chips," serving as a relatively reliable early warning.

Recently, the project team announced that the total ecological pledge volume has hit a new high. Such news is generally a medium- to long-term positive, helping to maintain the value bottom line. But in the short term, it provides the main players with a solid reason to offload—using the positive news to attract retail investors to chase higher, then taking the opportunity to reduce positions.

In the short term, I lean toward expecting a correction or even a shakeout. However, in the medium term, the story might not be over yet. The key is whether the price can effectively break below the lower support at 16.0.