Is Solana really "over"? Anatoly Yakovenko discusses market trends and future prospects

The Dramatic Contraction of Network Activity Raises Questions

In Q4 2025, Solana’s network activity recorded an astonishing 97% decline. This is not merely a temporary adjustment but suggests significant changes in the market structure. At its peak, over 30 million active traders supported the network, but now it has dwindled to fewer than 1 million per month.

Project stakeholders, including Anatoly Yakovenko, describe this phenomenon as a “crazy year.” Indeed, it occurs amid broader market trends, such as Bitcoin’s price dropping over 30%, but Solana’s decline appears even more severe.

Meme Coins Hold the Fate of Solana

The primary driver behind Solana’s growth was actually meme coins. Within just a few years from the cycle low in 2022, SOL surged from $8 to nearly $300, achieving over 35 times growth. During this process, meme coins became the main source of network traffic and revenue.

However, during the market turmoil of 2025, meme coins were hit first. As meme coin activity plummeted over 90%, SOL’s price also fell from nearly $300 to around $120, recording a 58% decline in just a few months.

The Revenue Gap with Ethereum Symbolizes Something

Currently, Solana faces an overwhelming competitive gap with Ethereum. In 2025, Ethereum generated over $1.4 billion annually, while Solana earned $50.22 billion. At first glance, Solana seems to have an advantage, but considering that in 2024 Solana earned $2.5 billion, this year indicates a nearly fivefold decrease.

From an investor return perspective, SOL underperformed Ethereum by 56% this year, contrasting with a relative advantage of over 24% last year. The market appears to be placing greater emphasis on Ethereum’s stability for institutional adoption.

Future Price Trends and Market Potential

The current SOL price hovers around $141.49, down 24.54% over the past year. There are various opinions in the market. Some analysts predict that in the first half of 2026, SOL could fall within the $50–75 range, anticipating further adjustments.

Meanwhile, considering large upside liquidity from leveraged short positions, some suggest a short-term potential for about 15% growth to the $134–140 range.

Challenges and the Path to Revival

Breaking Free from Meme Coins is Essential: The overwhelming majority of network activity relies on short-term gambling-like trading, making it vulnerable to market changes. Transitioning to more substantive applications is urgent.

Building Trust with Institutional Investors: Use cases such as stablecoin payments do attract institutional interest. Strengthening these areas could significantly enhance network resilience.

The Skill of Anatoly Yakovenko and the Development Team: Maintaining technical stability while adapting to market cycle changes is crucial.

Whether Solana is “finished” or “reborn” depends on the future transformation of its network usage structure.