The Federal Reserve's core CPI came in below expectations, leading to a significant reduction in market expectations for rate cuts at the January 28 FOMC meeting. According to CME FedWatch tool data, the probability of a rate cut in January has fallen below 18%. Meanwhile, rumors of pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve continue to circulate, coupled with delays in the markup of the crypto market structure bill due to banking lobbying, creating a cautiously optimistic atmosphere across the market.

Interestingly, Federal Reserve official Barkin recently stated that "AI and the wealthy are driving economic growth," implying that liquidity may be quietly released through reserve management and other means (approximately $4.5 billion in hidden monthly QE). Although not an official rate cut, this signals a loosening stance. The crypto market responded mildly, with total market capitalization remaining around $3.3 trillion, and Bitcoin dominance holding steady between 58-59%.

The highlight of this wave of market activity is the privacy coin sector. Monero, Litecoin, Zcash, and other coins continued to lead gains, reflecting market preference for "anti-regulation + high volatility" assets. Old coins like DOGE and ADA also rallied, indicating reallocation of incremental funds. The delay of the bill was initially seen as short-term negative, as DeFi and stablecoin ecosystems face policy uncertainty, but in the long term, it has strengthened the narrative around privacy and decentralization.

As of the afternoon of January 15, Bitcoin was slightly up by 0.7%, trading around $96,100, oscillating within the 96-97k range. Monero performed even better, with prices between $780-$800, re-entering the top ten by market cap. Behind this divergence is the market’s rational expectation of regulatory environments—when policies are uncertain, assets with higher decentralization are evidently more attractive.