Bitcoin End-of-2025 Market: Three Consecutive Months of Decline Confirmed, Cryptocurrency Market Risks Materialize

Bitcoin (BTC) ended the final month of 2025 on a soft note. The monthly return for December was confirmed at -2.85%, following a -17.67% in November and -3.69% in October, marking three consecutive months of negative returns and highlighting a clear risk-averse trend spreading across the entire cryptocurrency market. As of December 31, Bitcoin closed trading at approximately $87,500 (about 13.65 million yen).

About 23% decline throughout the entire Q4, reversing a historic seasonal pattern

Data analysis shows that the December 2025 monthly return of -2.85% is nearly identical to the historical median of -2.97%. However, the usual average return for December is +4.16%, with strong months like 2020’s +46.92% and 2023’s +12.18%, making this result indicative of a structural change in the market. Interestingly, 2024 also recorded a -2.85% in December, making it rare for December to end two years in a row with negative returns.

Bitcoin hit an annual high of about $126,000 in early October, but then recorded a roughly 23% decline throughout Q4. Since this period is typically considered a season of market gains, risk awareness among market participants has increased.

Accelerating institutional selling and capital outflows from the cryptocurrency market

Several factors underlie the price decline. The main reasons are decreased trading volume toward the end of the year and risk aversion, but more structural issues are also emerging. According to Reuters, Bitcoin experienced a decline of over $18,000 in November alone, marking its largest drop since May 2021. This movement is seen as part of a global risk adjustment linked to the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks.

Institutional investor activity is also notable. According to Bloomberg analysis, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs turned to net sellers in Q4, with major buyers who had supported the market withdrawing. Data from Deutsche Bank on institutional investors also suggests continuous capital outflows from Bitcoin-related investment products from November to December, indicating deepening risk concerns across the entire cryptocurrency market.

Outlook for 2026: Expectations for liquidity recovery and increased volatility

Market participants are already focusing on early 2026. Several market analysts expect improved trading volumes and a recovery in institutional demand, projecting a Bitcoin trading range for 2026 with an upper limit of $200,000 (about 3.12 million yen) and a lower limit of $75,000 (about 1.17 million yen). Given the current price level around $95,000, caution toward continued downside risks remains necessary.

Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has already declined by -1.11% in annual terms, emphasizing the increasing importance of risk management in cryptocurrency investments.