#我的2026第一条帖

Bitcoin Pullback After Surge: How Much Room Does the Rebound Have?
Bitcoin recently moved from the 98,000 area down toward 95,000 after a strong advance, showing a clear short-term pullback. This movement followed the release of US initial jobless claims data, which came in below expectations, suggesting the labor market remains stable. At the same time, comments from several Federal Reserve officials signaled a cautious stance on future rate adjustments, reducing short-term expectations for easing. As a result, overall risk sentiment cooled, placing temporary pressure on the crypto market.
From a macro perspective, the market largely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term. Stable employment data has eased concerns about economic weakness, giving policymakers room to maintain their current position. With liquidity expectations cooling, risk assets have entered a phase of consolidation, and cryptocurrencies are no exception.
From a technical view, Bitcoin’s daily chart has ended a series of gains with its first pullback candle, indicating short-term profit-taking. On the four-hour chart, momentum indicators show weakening strength, suggesting this move is more of a corrective phase rather than a strong trend continuation. However, prices are currently near short-term support zones, which may provide temporary stabilization before the next directional move.
Key short-term resistance levels are near 96,300 and around 97,000, areas where selling pressure previously appeared. On the downside, support is focused near 94,800. If this level fails to hold, price may revisit the 94,000–93,000 range, which is an important area to watch for market balance.
Ethereum has shown relatively better stability but still lacks strong upward momentum. Price action suggests a cooling phase after the recent rebound, with support near the 3,270 area. A break below this level could open room toward the 3,200–3,150 range. On the upside, the 3,370–3,400 zone remains a key resistance area.
Overall, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently experiencing a combination of macro pressure and technical correction. The market structure favors cautious observation rather than aggressive positioning. Paying close attention to key support and resistance levels, along with upcoming economic commentary, will be important for managing short-term expectations.