The expected probabilities for the Fed Chair candidate are rapidly adjusting. Haskett's market consensus has fallen to 44%, while Wosh has jumped from an edge position to 33%—such changes typically reflect a re-pricing of policy expectations.

From an on-chain perspective, this type of policy uncertainty often drives large capital to pre-position. Key areas to monitor in the past 48 hours include:

1. **Institutional inflows and outflows**: Whether the pace of stablecoin inflows to exchanges is accelerating, indicating rising risk aversion
2. **Whale holdings movements**: Large BTC/ETH wallet activity, especially transfers from institutional cold wallets
3. **Derivatives leverage data**: Trends in open interest for futures contracts

The January announcement of the Chair candidate is a certainty event, and markets usually experience volatility before expectations are realized. The key now is to observe whether funds are pricing in this in advance or waiting on the sidelines, which will determine the subsequent market rhythm.