The Underlying Currents of Iran's On-Chain Scene: When State Machinery Meets Public Hedging Needs in the Crypto World

In 2025, Iran's crypto ecosystem surpassed $7.78 billion, with most of the growth rates exceeding those of the previous year. Behind this figure are two starkly different yet intertwined narrative threads.

Data shows that Iran's on-chain activity is highly synchronized with domestic and international political events. From the Karaman explosion at the beginning of 2024, to the missile attack on Israel in October of the same year, and the intense twelve-day conflict in June 2025, each major upheaval has been accompanied by a significant surge in cryptocurrency trading volume. During the conflict in June last year, Iran's largest exchange Nobitex and the Sepah Bank used by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) even suffered cyberattacks.

A more intriguing trend is that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is increasingly dominating this market. Wallet addresses associated with the organization accounted for more than half of Iran's crypto ecosystem inflows in Q4 2025. In 2024, these addresses received over $2 billion on-chain, soaring to over $3 billion in 2025. This is a conservative estimate based only on addresses that have been publicly sanctioned.

Contrasting sharply with the IRGC's expansion is the risk-averse behavior of ordinary citizens. During recent large-scale protests, data captured a clear signal: the scale of Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges to personal wallets increased significantly. Comparing the pre- and post-protest windows, both the average daily USD amount and the number of transactions saw a leap.

This behavior is a direct response to the collapse of the local currency. Since 2018, the Iranian Rial has plummeted approximately 90% against major currencies, with domestic inflation rates lingering at high levels of 40% to 50%. For the public, assets like Bitcoin are not only tools to evade sanctions but also an escape route from this failing economic system.

In authoritarian economies, cryptocurrencies are evolving into a complex dual role: they serve as funding channels for state actors and as lifelines for individuals seeking financial sovereignty amid turmoil. When internal and external pressures on the regime intensify, this on-chain indicator reflects the true pulse of the economy more accurately than any official statement.

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