#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes have been released, with clear core signals: most officials support further rate cuts, but there are significant disagreements on timing and magnitude. These disagreements are directly reflected in the data—November's unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new high since 2021, but inflation was lower than expected, with the two signals pulling in opposite directions.

From an on-chain perspective, the release of these minutes has strengthened the market expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged in January, which will influence subsequent capital flows. The wavering expectations of rate cuts often lead to adjustments in institutional positions, especially notable are the large USDC liquidity movements that warrant ongoing monitoring. Historical experience shows that during periods of policy disagreement at the Federal Reserve, whale addresses tend to react in trading activity ahead of market expectation shifts.

The key point to watch is the economic data performance before the January 2026 meeting—if employment continues to weaken and inflation remains moderate, expectations for rate cuts will reignite; otherwise, they may be delayed. It is recommended to focus on large capital movements and contract position changes, as these often provide signals 2-3 weeks ahead of market consensus.