2026-01-16 10:11:10

#数字资产市场动态 Altcoin market cycle is getting shorter? Recently, some institutional data has shown a very interesting phenomenon.

The average rally cycle for altcoins in 2025 has been compressed to 19-20 days, compared to 60 days in 2024, a reduction of more than half. The underlying logic is quite clear—large-cap coins are supported by continuous institutional and ETF buying, making them appear safer and more stable, and retail funds are gradually shifting towards these. The appeal of small-cap coins is clearly declining.

This change can also be felt in the derivatives market. The open interest in futures contracts has decreased by about 55%, and the direct consequence of insufficient liquidity is—markets come quickly and go just as fast, igniting like fireworks and then quickly dissipating. The upward trend has turned into short-term trading, with stop-losses frequently triggered, making market rhythm very rapid.

To see a sustained rebound in altcoins? Basically, three conditions need to be met simultaneously: institutional funds entering, retail enthusiasm returning, and a relatively stable macro environment. Without any one of these, the altcoin market will still exhibit short-lived performance. This also explains why many people’s profit expectations on altcoins have recently generally declined.

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MetaMisfit

· 4h ago

19 days? You might as well trade futures and short-term trades, it's ridiculously fast. Retail investors have long since moved on to accumulating major coins. Who's still waiting for altcoins to rebound? Contract volume dropped by 55%, in plain terms, no one is trading anymore. With such poor liquidity, you still want to make money? Dream on.

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SchroedingerMiner

· 4h ago

19 days? Damn, this pace is really incredible, it feels even faster than my mood swings.

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NewDAOdreamer

· 4h ago

Gone in just 19 days, what's the point of playing anymore? Retail investors have all moved to BTC, who else is still fighting the copycat scams with you?

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4am_degen

· 5h ago

It’s gone in just 19 days. To put it simply, the rhythm of cutting leeks has sped up. --- Damn, these data are quite impressive. Retail investors should wake up already. --- No more liquidity, then don’t play anymore. It’s safer to hold onto the big coin. --- Institutions are bloodsucking, and we’re still sleepwalking? Wake up, everyone. --- 55% of contract volume is gone. That’s a signal, brothers. --- All three conditions met at the same time? Dream on, that’s impossible. --- Why are some still gambling on small coins? I really don’t understand. --- From 60 days down to 20 days. The speed is truly incredible. --- What does frequent stop-loss triggering indicate? It means you should withdraw. --- Big coins are banded together, small coins are falling apart. The story is over.

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ImpermanentPhobia

· 5h ago

Gone in just 19-20 days, it's better to buy big coins for stability, really.

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