#数字资产市场动态 BTC 1-hour chart enters the convergence end, bulls and bears are at a stalemate

From a technical perspective, consider these points:

The price is stuck at 95567, oscillating around the MA7 (95676), but the MA30 (96444) is still pressing from above. If the hourly chart can hold above the MA30, the rebound strength will increase. The Bollinger Bands have already contracted to the extreme (upper band 97342, lower band 95179), such a tight squeeze often signals a breakout. Currently, the price is near the lower band; if it holds above 95362 as support, the middle band (96261) becomes the next target.

The MACD looks interesting — the histogram is still hovering around the zero line, but the key point is that the lows are gradually rising, which is a bullish divergence. Once the DIF line turns upward, the hourly rebound can accelerate.

On-chain data also supports this judgment. Over the past three days, net outflows of BTC from exchanges have been increasing, indicating that large holders are stable and not planning to dump aggressively. Meanwhile, the number of large transactions over $10,000 has suddenly increased, which usually suggests institutions are quietly positioning, possibly buying on dips at the current level.

In terms of news, the Federal Reserve's rate decision will be announced this month. If they signal dovishness, risk assets are likely to rebound collectively. Additionally, last week’s capital flow into Bitcoin spot ETFs turned positive from negative, indicating market panic is gradually turning into caution — a sign of building momentum.

My clear view is: in the short term (1 to 3 days), look for a rebound. As long as the support at 95300 holds, I will gradually add long positions in the 95500 to 95800 range, targeting 97000 to 97500 (this is the overlapping resistance zone of the Bollinger upper band and MA30). But if volume breaks through 95000 downward, I will cut losses and wait for the next opportunity.

$BTC