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Bitcoin recently retraced to the support zone around 95,000, which is a very critical level. Currently, directly shorting at the resistance level is not a wise move; instead, BTC is more likely to see a rebound.
So where is the opportunity to short again? My idea is to wait for it to surge again toward the strongest resistance level—approaching the 98,000 mark. Usually, a major resistance is tested 2 to 3 times. The first test has a very high success rate for shorting, the second is still decent, but by the third time, it's best not to touch it.
Looking back at previous movements, our first wave successfully shorted at 97,500 down to 95,200, which was as expected a decline. The warning then was not to rush into a rebound because the decline might not be complete—indeed, it has now reached the 95,200 level. The next plan is to safely short again near the previous high of 97,500. If it doesn’t reach, forget it; if it does, you must follow. Remember to set stop-loss and take-profit orders, and exit immediately on slight breakouts, as long as the risk-reward ratio is favorable.
Besides Bitcoin, WLFI and ZEC have also hit their peaks and fallen back recently. I’ve been bearish on WLFI, taking multiple swing trades, and have already taken half of the profits. When it shows a larger rebound, for example approaching the 0.18 level, I plan to short again. The remaining position will be held according to the original plan until the end of the activity at the end of January, and I expect to make some more profit.
Here’s a reminder: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting is getting closer. If you hold long positions, it’s best to reduce your holdings and take profits on rallies, and avoid greed at extreme points. For example, the 100,000 level looks tempting, but what if it doesn’t reach that point? All the profits gained could be wiped out, which would be a loss.
The same logic applies to shorting. I don’t expect to short at the very top, but rather to enter in batches and at different times, building a position at a relatively good average price. During Wave C’s decline, it won’t be gentle; breaking previous lows is just the beginning. Once the main force completes its chip distribution, the real market movement will begin. Be prepared for that now.