BTC breaking through $100,039 will trigger $1.6 billion in liquidations, but whales are adding positions on dips.

2026-01-16 10:31:57

According to the latest news, if BTC breaks through $100,039, the cumulative short liquidation strength on mainstream CEXs will reach $1.624 billion; conversely, if it falls below $91,327, the long liquidation strength will reach $1.372 billion. Currently, BTC is priced at $95,432, positioned between two key risk levels. Interestingly, whales are buying on dips, and the options market is betting on an upward move. This divergence is worth noting.

Liquidation Strength Map: The Dual Risks Facing BTC

According to Coinglass data, BTC is currently in a “sandwiched” position:

Direction	Key Price Level	Liquidation Scale	Distance from Current Price
Upward	$100,039	$1.624 billion short liquidation	approximately +$4,600
Downward	$91,327	$1.372 billion long liquidation	approximately -$4,100
Current	$95,432	-	-

These two levels form a relatively balanced liquidation strength structure. The short liquidation strength above is slightly larger, indicating that the market has more hedging bets on an upward move; the long liquidation below is comparatively smaller, reflecting that the risk of breaking support is relatively manageable.

Market Divergence: Whales Accumulating vs Retail Profit-Taking

On-chain data shows a clear divergence between bulls and bears:

Whales' Actions

Large holders with 10 to 10,000 BTC have recently accumulated over 56,000 BTC
Major exchanges like Binance have seen a surge in large deposits, peaking at 21.76 BTC recently
These actions typically indicate institutional investors are optimistic about the market's future

Retail's Response

Small wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have been selling off after the price broke above $93,000
This profit-taking behavior contrasts sharply with whale accumulation

Historical Insights

Historically, the simultaneous occurrence of whale accumulation and retail profit-taking often signals an upcoming bull market. The current market pattern aligns with this historical trend.

Technical and Options Market Resonance

Beyond on-chain data, technical analysis and derivatives markets are also sending positive signals:

Multiple technical indicators show upward momentum, with recent resistance levels at $94,500, $97,500, and $99,000
In Deribit options market, there is strong demand for BTC call options, especially at strike prices of $98,000 and $100,000
This suggests market participants have expectations of a breakout to the upside

Key Levels and Risk Assessment

Upcoming Critical Price Levels

$97,500: 50-week moving average, an important technical support
$99,000: near the 365-day VWAP, a zone of historical high trading volume
$100,000: psychological milestone and trigger point for $1.624 billion short liquidation

Risk Warnings

Breaking above $100,039 will trigger $1.624 billion in short liquidations, potentially pushing prices higher or causing volatility
The downside risk below $91,327 is smaller, but if triggered, it will release $1.372 billion in long liquidations
Current geopolitical factors also introduce uncertainties that require ongoing attention

Summary

BTC is currently in a tense position. On the upside, $1.624 billion in short liquidations await release; on the downside, $1.372 billion in long liquidations serve as a defense line. More interestingly, whale accumulation on dips, bullish bets in the options market, and retail profit-taking form a classic market divergence pattern. Historically, such divergence often signals that a trend is about to clarify. The key next step is to watch whether BTC can break through the $97,500–$99,000 technical resistance zone, which will be crucial for determining the future direction.

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