11 days countdown to the Federal Reserve meeting: How will the bulls and bears battle around the $95,000 Bitcoin threshold?

Bitcoin experienced a slight pullback after approximately 4% weekly gains, with the current price stabilizing above $95,000. This level is not chosen arbitrarily but represents the actual intersection point of market bulls and bears. More importantly, there are 11 days until the Federal Reserve's first policy meeting on January 27-28, and Bitcoin's performance within this window may directly depend on market expectations regarding the Fed's policy direction.

The True Meaning of the Current Price Level

As of January 16, Bitcoin is priced around $95,674. From a technical perspective, this level is in a clear resistance zone. $97,500 constitutes a phased resistance level; if successfully broken, the market could challenge the $100,000 milestone again. Conversely, the $95,000 and $92,000 regions will serve as key support levels.

Looking at indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57, in the neutral zone, showing no overbought or oversold signals. The MACD remains positive, indicating a short-term upward trend, but the declining histogram suggests downward pressure still exists. These technical features imply the market is in a state of indecision, awaiting key signals.

Liquidity Expectations as the Main Support

The key to the Fed meeting lies in policy signals. According to the latest news, Arthur Hayes believes that by 2026, dollar liquidity will expand again, including a rebound in the Fed's balance sheet, increased commercial bank lending, and lower mortgage rates. This outlook provides positive support for Bitcoin.

Data shows this expectation is already reflected in the capital flow. On January 15, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded approximately $100 million in net inflows, marking the fourth consecutive day of net capital inflow. This indicates institutional investors remain relatively optimistic ahead of the Fed meeting.

Currently, the federal funds rate remains between 3.50% and 3.75%, at relatively low levels in recent years. The Fed previously cut rates three times in December 2025, which has increased market expectations for continued easing policies in early 2026. If the signals from the meeting confirm this outlook, it will further support risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Increased Political Uncertainty Adds Variables

However, there is an important variable not to be ignored: the political pressure faced by Fed Chair Powell. Trump has publicly stated he will soon replace Powell, and the U.S. Department of Justice is also conducting criminal investigations into him. These pressures could impact the independence of Fed policies, increasing decision-making uncertainty.

Market reactions are cautious. Although capital continues to flow in net, the overall market structure shows some assets' momentum is slowing, indicating investors are becoming more cautious ahead of key macro events. This caution is reasonable, as diminished central bank independence could lead to less predictable policies.

Three Possible Price Trajectories

Based on current information, three scenarios may unfold:

• Optimistic Scenario: The Fed confirms a dovish liquidity policy, Bitcoin effectively breaks through $97,500, and challenges the $100,000 milestone.
• Neutral Scenario: The meeting signals are ambiguous or as expected, with Bitcoin maintaining high levels and oscillating within the $95,000 to $97,500 range.
• Pessimistic Scenario: Political uncertainties intensify or hawkish policy signals emerge, leading to deeper Bitcoin corrections, with $95,000 and $92,000 support levels serving as defenses.

Summary

$95,000 is not only Bitcoin's current price level but also the dividing line between bullish and bearish forces at this stage. The upcoming Fed meeting will be a decisive factor. Positive liquidity expectations and ongoing net capital inflows provide a foundation for upward movement, but political uncertainties and investor caution remind us not to be overly optimistic. Until Fed policy clarity emerges, Bitcoin is most likely to remain in a high-level oscillation, with breakthroughs above resistance or drops below support rewriting the short-term narrative.