Options settlement drives BTC volatility, key resistance levels become focal points

The Bitcoin market has recently shown a clear compression and consolidation pattern, with prices repeatedly testing key technical levels. According to the latest market data, BTC is currently quoted at $95.33K, down 1.42% in the past 24 hours, with a trading volume of $1.02B, and a market capitalization exceeding $1.9 trillion.

Large Options Expiry Triggers Market Shock

On December 26, $28 billion worth of Bitcoin options expired simultaneously, becoming a key factor driving that day's market movement. On that day, BTC price rose above $89,100, then oscillated around $88,500. Technical analysts point out that this rally occurred in two phases: the first was mainly a technical rebound caused by short covering, and as the price broke through local resistance, the second wave showed signs of genuine buying interest.

Trading activity on this day significantly increased, with BTC's daily trading volume surging by 36% week-over-week to $300 billion, reflecting a heightened market participation. However, analysts emphasize that despite strong upward momentum, this rebound has not yet confirmed a sustained bullish reversal signal.

$94,000 Becomes the Bull-Bear Divide

From a technical perspective, whether Bitcoin can regain and hold above $94,000 will be crucial in determining the future trend. If BTC continues to stay above this level, it could further push towards $100,000 or even higher. Conversely, a drop below $80,000 support would turn the market outlook notably bearish.

Analysts observe that BTC's lows are gradually rising, while the 200-day moving average on the 4-hour chart is forming resistance overhead. The price structure is tightening, indicating that a 5% to 10% unilateral move may occur in the coming weeks.

January Becomes the Key Period for Trend Confirmation

Market focus has shifted to January 2026, which will serve as an important window to determine the next major trend for Bitcoin. As the year-end approaches, 2025 has shown relatively weak performance, and market expectations for a rebound in the new year are high.

Traders should pay attention to increased volatility during options expiry periods and wait for clear breakout signals before formulating new trading plans. Only when Bitcoin effectively breaks through technical resistance with high trading volume can a reversal direction be confidently confirmed.