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#WeekendMarketPredictions
Despite Bitcoin showing a 21% increase since November 2025, rising from $80 500 to $97 900, this is a "bear market rally," not the beginning of a sustainable recovery.
A similar scenario unfolded in 2022 during the previous bear market. The price of Bitcoin decreased by 27% after crossing the 365-day moving average from below, then increased by 47% and experienced a pullback exactly from the 365-day moving average level.
Fundamental and technical indicators currently suggest the continuation of the bear market. An additional concerning sign is the increasing inflow of Bitcoin to crypto exchanges. The seven-day inflow volume reached 39,000 BTC — the highest level since November 25, 2025.
An increase in cryptocurrency inflows to trading platforms is traditionally seen as a sign of mounting selling pressure. Retail investors are transferring assets to exchanges for liquidation, which could negatively impact Bitcoin's price in the short term.
The pressure from Bitcoin bulls on the asset's price is weakening, and their fate now depends on two factors: capital inflow into exchange-traded funds (ETF) and increased demand in the spot market.