#比特币2026年行情展望 $BTC Trend Breakdown: This upward move starting from the green marked point may develop into a 5-wave impulsive pattern (provided that the blue line's large W forms a guiding wedge), or it could be a zigzag correction, multiple zigzags, or a combined correction pattern.

In the short term, the green line has completed a 5-wave impulsive move, with the resistance level at 98.009 just holding firm, touching a high of 97.963, which fully aligns with the expected trajectory.

Starting from the purple point, the purple line represents a triple zigzag correction wave, which is a challenging area. Once the support breaks, the price may continue downward to seek more space, possibly testing the lower boundary of the 4-hour KC, below the 6-hour KC, or the daily BBI. Key supports are around 93.843, 93.548, and 93.331, with an extreme dip to 92.710-92.769. The real line of defense is at the daily BBI and 91.595; as long as this line is held for three consecutive trading days, the rebound can continue. If broken, the entire medium-term rally initiated from the blue point will be considered over. This is not a bull market; caution against bear market logic is advised.

Interestingly, Gann’s time law is remarkably accurate. Looking back at last year's turning points, December 31, 2025; January 1, 2026; January 6; January 10; and January 15 all aligned perfectly. The next critical time window is around January 18, 2026, when the purple wave correction should conclude, and a further rally is expected.

However, there is a fork in the road:

**Scenario A** (20% probability): If the green line is simply a 5-wave impulsive move, and the blue line's large W is a guiding wedge that cannot break through 98.009, then the 98-dollar level becomes the ceiling of this medium-term rally. The risk of a top forming increases.

**Scenario B** (80% probability): If the green line upgrades to a higher-degree 5-wave, or if the blue line's large W is not a guiding wedge at all, then the top has not yet been reached. The true top might be around the 5-day KC upper band at 103.410, calculated on November 21, or even higher. Extending upward, the weekly KC upper band range of 106.600-107.481-108.811 is within consideration. In extreme cases, it might even test the 110-112.564 level.

This logical framework is based on the experience from the early 2022 market cycle, and comparing it to the current rhythm provides some valuable insights. Overall, the key is whether the price can break through the 98 level, which will determine the market’s divergence.