AI-Driven Deflation Could Trigger COVID-Style Market Crash for Bitcoin: Macro Analyst Luke Gromen

2026-01-17 12:24:33

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: COVID March 2020-Style Event Potentially Brewing for Bitcoin: Luke Gromen Original Link: Market research firm FFTT founder Luke Gromen warns that while an inflationary wave is becoming increasingly likely, a sharp market correction could occur beforehand, potentially triggered by artificial intelligence growth.

Gromen notes that many analysts expect a multi-year money-printing-induced bull market, but he cautions there will likely be a significant correction first. He compares this potential scenario to March 2020, when the market crash eventually justified the stimulus that sparked explosive rallies across risk assets.

Bitcoin’s Vulnerability

According to Gromen, Bitcoin currently trades like a high-beta tech stock rather than a reserve asset. He explained:

“Bitcoin, I think, eventually, sure, it’ll do great. But bitcoin is still trading like a high beta tech stock, that’s just a fact. And if we do get AI-driven deflation, unless bitcoin starts trading like a reserve asset, then I think the faster that AI goes, the more risk there is that bitcoin does a COVID March 2020 type of thing. It went from what, $15,000 to $5,000 pretty quickly? It could do that again.”

Gromen emphasizes this is not his base case scenario, but rather a cautionary possibility. Between February and March 2020, Bitcoin dropped approximately 61% from $10,400 to $3,800 before entering a historic bull run. A similar percentage decline from current levels would put Bitcoin around $36,000.

Long-Term Optimism

Despite the near-term risks, Gromen maintains high conviction that large amounts of liquidity will eventually be added to markets. He stresses the importance of understanding the correct “order of operations” - getting the sequence of events right is crucial and perhaps overlooked by many investors.

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