XPL's performance these days has indeed been frustrating. The price is stuck firmly around $0.14, unable to break through, with daily K-lines repeatedly making lower lows, and all technical indicators signaling sell. Where is the root of the problem? Everyone is thinking about one thing—the massive unlock in July this year.

A total of 2.5 billion tokens, originally costing only $0.05 each, are about to be unlocked, which feels like a sword hanging over the market. Who dares to move?

The bearish logic is indeed solid. Facing such a large unlock expectation, any rebound is seen as a paper tiger in their eyes. Once the psychological barrier of $0.15 is broken, the downside space will open up completely. The daily to weekly technicals all tell the same story—sell, keep selling, and the trend might not be over yet.

But it's not all hopeless. On-chain data shows whales quietly opening long positions with high leverage around $0.16, and they are resolute in not stop-lossing. Even more interesting, a major exchange invested 3.5 million XPL into a creator incentive program, clearly aiming to boost the ecosystem. It shows that big funds are still betting on the future of this project.

How to operate? My idea is: before the July mountain looms overhead, market sentiment will continue to be suppressed. In the short term, I lean towards shorting. If the price rebounds to the strong resistance zone of $0.155-$0.16 but shows weakness, that’s a good shorting opportunity, with a stop-loss set above $0.165.

As for bottom-fishing and going long? Unless you see on-chain stablecoin trading volume truly exploding or the negative impact of the unlock being fully digested, it’s better to wait a bit more. One last word—always keep your contracts light and set your stop-losses properly.