Bitcoin is between the three-layer cost prices at $95,105, who will surrender first next?

Bitcoin’s current price is $95,105. Behind this seemingly calm figure lie three key holder cost bases. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, these cost bases are not only technical levels but also represent the psychological defenses of buyers at different periods. When the price repeatedly tests these levels, the market’s true intentions often become gradually apparent.

Cost Base Structure: Bitcoin’s Three Layers of Defense

Analysts categorize Bitcoin holders into three critical groups based on their holding periods, each with an associated average cost basis:

The True Meaning of Support Levels

The support level at $81,700 is the most noteworthy. It represents the average cost basis of long-term holders who have held for 12 to 18 months. These investors have endured enough market testing. If Bitcoin falls back into this zone, these investors are likely to hold their positions, potentially becoming new buying forces. This is not just a technical support but a psychological defense line for market participants.

Double Resistance Pressure Above

$101,000 is the first resistance. This level corresponds to the cost basis of holders who have held for 6 to 12 months, many of whom have been in profit over the past half-year. When the price approaches or hits this level, some investors may choose to take profits.

Higher up, $114,650 is the second resistance, matching the cost basis of short-term holders (3 to 6 months). These investors built positions at relatively high levels. If the price returns near their cost basis, some may sell at breakeven.

Market Implications at the Current Level

Bitcoin at $95,105 is at a delicate equilibrium point. It has surpassed the average cost basis of short-term holders but has not yet broken through the long-term holders’ defense line.

Looking at 7-day and 30-day gains, Bitcoin has risen 4.98% over 7 days and 8.17% over 30 days, indicating a moderate upward momentum. But the key question is: can this rally break through the critical resistance at $101,000?

The Context Is Crucial: Deleveraging in Progress

Notably, recent data shows that open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has been steadily declining over the past three months, with a cumulative drop of 31% since October last year. This indicates that the market is actively deleveraging, with high-leverage speculative positions being cleared.

In this context, the cost base structure becomes even more significant. As leverage decreases, the true drivers of price will be spot buying and long-term accumulation, rather than speculative liquidations. This makes the cost bases of long-term holders more resilient.

Short-term Focus

If Testing Downward

If Bitcoin drops back toward $81,700, it will be a critical observation point. Will long-term holders (12-18 months) hold firm, or will panic selling occur? This will directly influence subsequent price movements.

If Breaking Upward

Breaking through $101,000 will be pivotal. Once this long-term holder’s defense line is breached, the next resistance is at $114,650. However, in the context of deleveraging, such a breakout will require stronger spot demand to support it.

Summary

Bitcoin’s current position is not arbitrary but defined by multiple holder cost levels. The levels at $81,700, $101,000, and $114,650 represent the psychological defenses of buyers from different periods. In the current environment of deleveraging and structural normalization, these cost bases may be more important than ever. The next move depends on whether Bitcoin can break through the $101,000 long-term holder’s defense line or will repeatedly test this zone. The market is waiting for a clear directional signal.