Good morning on Sunday, January 18, 2026. Bitcoin price has fallen below 95,000 USDT, erasing this week's gains, influenced by the decline in US stocks; the ancient whale selling 500 BTC triggered market volatility; XRP forecast suggests that 5000 XRP could be equal to 1 BTC by the end of the year, Vitalik Buterin is optimistic about Ethereum's rebound in 2026. Overall market sentiment is neutral to cautious, with attention to US state proposals for Bitcoin reserves.

1. Bitcoin Price Dynamics
Bitcoin retreated this morning to above 94,000 USDT, continuing to erase this week's gains, in sync with the plunge in US stocks and metals. Current price: 94,999 USDT, down 0.49% in 24h, trading volume stable but selling pressure increased. Prediction: CoinCodex expects 1 BTC to reach 104,805 USDT on January 18, a potential 11.96% increase, with short-term support at 90,000 USDT.

2. Ancient Whale BTC Sell-off Event
An ancient whale who accumulated 5,000 BTC 12 years ago sold 500 BTC today, worth approximately $47.5 million, triggering on-chain detection alerts. This move may intensify short-term selling pressure, but overall holdings remain stable. Market interpretation: profit-taking rather than panic. Impact: trading volume temporarily surged by 10%, BTC short-term volatility rose to 25%.

3. Michael Saylor Bitcoin Strategy Evaluation
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor's Bitcoin accumulation strategy faced setbacks, with the company's stock price dragged down by the crypto market. Project impact: MicroStrategy holds over 250,000 BTC, but its 2025 returns lag behind the market, leading investors to question its “financial alchemy.” Background: Saylor, a staunch supporter of BTC, promotes corporate adoption, but current market downturn amplifies risks.

4. US State Governments' Bitcoin Reserve Proposals
Led by Texas and New Hampshire, multiple states are competing to include Bitcoin in their public balance sheets to hedge against inflation. Event: Texas proposal receives preliminary support, expected to take effect in 2026, potentially injecting over $1 billion of public funds. Impact: boosts institutional confidence, the concept of BTC as a “strategic reserve” spreads, similar to gold reserves.

5. Ethereum Outlook for 2026
Vitalik Buterin states that Ethereum will regain its “lost ground” in 2026, no longer compromising sovereignty and trustlessness principles. Core focus: Layer 2 scaling and privacy upgrades, high developer activity, smooth roadmap progress. Market sentiment: ETH current price is stable, community governance active, DeFi TVL expected to rebound by 20%.

Short-term: High selling pressure on BTC and macro downside risks, volatility at 25%, recommend no more than 30% position size.

Mid-term: State reserve proposals are positive, XRP/ETH have great potential, but monitor Federal Reserve policies.

Overall: Market cycles are oscillating, 40% probability of a bear market, prioritize defensive assets.

Buy-in timing: accumulate in phases when BTC drops below 94,000 USDT, target 105,000 USDT.

Diversification: allocate 20% to XRP (forecast-driven), 15% to ETH (technology upgrades), avoid high-beta meme coins like DOGE.

Derivatives: monitor funding rates, hedge with short-term put options.

Optimistic scenario: state proposals pass, BTC hits 100,000 USDT, with a 3:1 reward ratio.
Pessimistic scenario: chain reaction of ancient whale sell-offs, drop to 85,000 USDT, stop-loss at 8%.
Neutral scenario: oscillate between 92k-98k, hold SOL/IMX ecosystem tokens.

Stop-loss: set at 92,000 USDT for BTC, 1.8 USDT for XRP to avoid emotional trading.
Take-profit: tiered profit-taking, with 50% of positions at forecast targets.
Reward ratio: target 2:1, RSI<30 buy signal.

BTC price decline opportunities outweigh risks, but watch for short-term selling pressure. Keep an eye on US regulatory developments, short-term support levels for BTC, and long-term positions in ETH/XRP/ETH ecosystem. Key risks: macroeconomic uncertainties; opportunities: US state Bitcoin reserve boosts confidence. Maintain diversified investments!