#以太坊价格与ETF After reading this forecasted account for 2025, I felt a sense of familiarity—this is a scene I’ve seen too many times in this market.

Remember the 2017 bull run? The voices back then were just as aggressive, with influencers talking about hundredfold or thousandfold gains, their words so convincing it was hard not to be persuaded. And what happened next? The inevitable drop, the necessary cleanup. Now, 2025 is almost over, and industry leaders like Saylor, Tom Lee, and Arthur Hayes have adjusted their targets from 200,000, 250,000 down to 150,000, 100,000, yet they still missed the mark.

This isn’t meant to mock anyone; rather, it highlights a deeper issue: market uncertainty always exceeds our predictive capabilities. Human nature tends to lose control in the face of huge profits, even seasoned institutional experts are not immune. Hayes later admitted that his predictions were "quite terrible," and this self-correcting attitude is worth noting—rather than stubbornly clinging to forecasts, acknowledging mistakes is a form of learning.

Looking at historical cycles, every wave of volatility has its own logic. The launch of ETFs and the influx of institutional funds have indeed changed some patterns, but changing the rules of the game is never due to a single factor. True investment wisdom is never about betting on a big influencer’s prediction; it’s about understanding the underlying logic of market operation and staying clear-headed amid fluctuations. These inaccurate forecasts serve as reminders of how we should view the future.