2026-01-18 11:22:40

Looking at the recent trend of Bitcoin relative to gold, it has entered a relatively rare undervalued zone. From a technical perspective, the BTC/gold Z-score has dropped below the -2 level for the first time, a signal that has only appeared near major bottoms in history.

Looking back at historical data reveals the pattern. After a similar signal appeared at the end of 2022, Bitcoin's price increased by nearly 150% over the following 12 months; going further back to the 2020 cycle, the increase even exceeded 10 times. This indicates that the predictive power of this indicator is quite reliable.

The logic behind market rotation is also very clear — usually, gold first enters a bull phase, with funds flooding into safe-haven assets; once the upward trend of gold is established, risk appetite gradually recovers, and funds start rotating from gold into high-risk assets like Bitcoin. The current question is not whether Bitcoin will rebound, but once this rotation repeats, by 2026, Bitcoin's performance is very likely to outperform gold by a significant margin.

BTC-0.1%

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TokenomicsTinfoilHat

· 4h ago

Hey, there are really not many times when the Z-score breaks below -2; history is speaking. 2026, right? Just stay positive, anyway, just relax and you'll earn. Damn, if this logic holds, I should be long and short on a few more bitcoins now. Gold, my bro, has been really strong lately, but cycle rotation is something I haven't missed before. Wait, could this be a trap again? History repeating itself depends on catching the right timing, right?

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GasFeeCrying

· 5h ago

Is this really different? How likely is history to repeat itself?

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 5h ago

Is this another Z-score narrative to cut the leeks? They said the same last year around this time. --- Wait, is the data really this outrageous this time? Breaking below -2? --- 2026? Bro, your expectations are a bit too far ahead haha. --- This repeated story of history playing out has been heard too many times. The market is different now. --- To put it nicely, it's just waiting for retail investors to take the bait. --- Gold bull run → Bitcoin rotation, this logic isn't wrong, but who can pinpoint the timing? --- The story of 10x sounds great, but can it really be reproduced? --- There are so many people losing money despite this awesome indicator. --- I just want to know if it's still being seen as a leek to be cut now. --- Rare signals happen every year, but people still lose money every year. That's interesting.

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tx_pending_forever

· 5h ago

This data is a bit aggressive; I've really never heard of the Z-score breaking -2 in such detail before. How high will it rise by 2026... I'm a bit excited but also a bit scared. Wait, does gold need to rise first? There's no signal yet, right? It's all armchair strategizing after the fact; the 2020 wave was also only recognized afterward. Will this cycle really repeat? It feels like each time is different.

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GateUser-3824aa38

· 5h ago

A solid bottom signal, it's quite rare to see the Z-score break below -2. Just like that wave in 2022, I'll probably add to my position again and regret not doing it earlier. The probability of history repeating itself is quite high; it all depends on who can hold on.

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OnChainSleuth

· 5h ago

This time is really different. The Z-score breaking below -2 has appeared several times before and never disappointed. The 2020 wave directly multiplied by 10. The logical cycle is flawless. Wait, will history repeat itself, or is this just another perfectly crafted story? But the data is right there... Damn, FOMO again. Who can really predict what 2026 will look like? Is the -2 level really that critical, or are we again being fooled by technical indicators? I believe in the logic of gold rotation into BTC, but I really don’t know when the funds will start rotating. That’s the key, right?

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