This evening at 6:00 PM (January 18), ETH is hovering around $3313, with a 24-hour increase of less than 1%. The entire hourly chart is bouncing back and forth between $3286 and $3330. It may seem insignificant, but the market is already gathering strength.

Looking at the technical indicators—the Bollinger Bands are squeezed to the limit, with the upper and lower bands less than $50 apart. This kind of "congestion" state has historically been a precursor to major moves, often leading to volatility that is 2 to 3 times the bandwidth once broken. Regarding moving averages, the 7-day and 30-day lines are tightly aligned, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears. However, the MACD shows that the bearish momentum is weakening, with DIF approaching DEA and a preliminary divergence forming at the bottom, which is a good sign for the bulls.

Price levels are quite clear: above $3330 is near the top of the Bollinger Bands, and as long as it holds, it could head straight to $3360; below, $3287 is a recent bottom, and if it breaks down, it might test $3260. Fundamentally, ETH spot ETFs have been accumulating during this period, with large investors continuing to increase their holdings. Reserves on exchanges are decreasing, and the long-term outlook remains stable. Therefore, the current fluctuations are more likely due to institutional portfolio adjustments rather than a trend reversal.

In simple terms, ETH is likely to choose a direction within this hour, with upward momentum slightly leading. The key is how to break through the $3300 to $3310 range. Follow the trend, set stop-losses where needed, set take-profit levels, and don’t be scared by sudden news.