#比特币周期规律 2025 has already sent an interesting signal—the first time in BTC history that, after the halving, there was a yearly decline, dropping over 30% from the October high of $126,000. This directly touches the market’s most sensitive nerve: is the four-year cycle really dead?

After reviewing several opinions, my judgment is: the cycle pattern itself is not dead, but the driving logic is indeed changing.

The previous three halving cycles (2012, 2016, 2020) could accurately verify the cycle hypothesis, mainly because the market structure was relatively simple—primarily driven by retail investor sentiment. But the current landscape is completely different. ETF approvals, institutional entry, corporate asset-liability Bitcoin allocations—these incremental funds bring increased weight to macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitical issues. Supply and demand relationships do exist, but the execution logic is more complex.

I agree with Fidelity’s view—the key variable is not the halving itself, but the scale of incremental demand. If reserve purchases at the national level are initiated, they could form a new cycle driver; conversely, the pressure from institutional selling could also suppress prices. The current correction might be the start of a bear market, or it could just be a correction within a new bull market. The judgment should be based on specific data about capital flows and position structures.

We won’t see the answer until 2026; it’s too early to draw conclusions now. Chasing gains in the short term is indeed unwise, but the logic for long-term allocation remains intact.