#周末行情分析

Stay tuned for stabilization signals and focus on structural opportunities

Recently, after consecutive pullbacks, selling pressure has eased somewhat. This weekend's market movement is indeed very critical. My personal view is that in the short term, the market is more likely to present a “consolidation and correction” pattern, and a strong rebound will still need to accumulate momentum.

1. Why is it consolidation and correction?
Although selling pressure has weakened, it takes time for market sentiment to shift from panic to confidence rebuilding. Currently, most mainstream coins on the daily chart remain under moving average suppression, lacking clear volume reversal signals. Weekends typically see lighter trading, and conditions for a sharp surge are insufficient. It is more likely to digest the oversold pressure through range-bound oscillations and gradually build a support platform.

2. Key observation point: Can BTC hold above $42,000
The core variable I am most focused on this weekend is BTC's trend. It is not just a barometer; whether it stabilizes or not will directly determine the overall market risk appetite. I will pay close attention to two points:

· Trading volume: Whether sustained volume appears during the rebound; a rebound on declining volume is unreliable.
· $42,000 - $42,500 zone: If BTC can hold above this range and gradually recover short-term moving averages, market sentiment is expected to shift from “weak oscillation” to “bottoming oscillation,” creating conditions for the subsequent trend.

3. Potential structural opportunities: Watch for rotation in strong altcoins
If the overall market can move into a consolidation and correction phase, some sectors or altcoins may present structural opportunities. I will focus on:

· ETH/BTC trading pair: Observe whether ETH shows signs of catching up or relative strength, which could signal a slight increase in market risk appetite.
· Leading tokens in AI and DePIN sectors: For projects that have shown resilience during recent corrections and whose fundamentals and narratives remain intact, they may rebound first when the market stabilizes. However, I will strictly control positions, viewing them as “trial positions” or “observation positions,” and will not hold heavy positions to chase rebounds.

4. My trading approach: Better to miss out than to make mistakes
In the current environment, my strategy leans conservative:

· Maintain main positions: Continue with dollar-cost averaging for medium- and long-term holdings, avoiding frequent adjustments due to short-term volatility.
· Small positions for testing: If BTC volume stabilizes above key levels, consider using very small positions (e.g., 1-2% of total funds) to participate in short-term rebounds of strong coins, with quick entries and exits, and strict stop-losses.
· Focus on observation and learning: This weekend, I prefer to spend time reviewing recent market movements and tracking project developments rather than rushing into trades. Opportunities are never lacking in the market, but when the direction is unclear, protecting capital and waiting for higher-confidence signals is a more rational choice.

Summary:
I believe the core task this weekend is to observe whether the market can “stop falling,” rather than rushing to judge a “rebound.” Consolidation and correction is a healthier and more likely path. Patience and waiting for clearer signals from the market may be the most needed mindset right now.