After the FOMC meeting, you can always hear two completely opposite interpretations.

Some say "rate cuts are imminent," while others say "the Fed is still hawkish." But these understandings are actually too superficial.

The Fed's true intention this time is not to give the market a clear direction, but to drive like a car—neither pressing the accelerator too hard nor slamming the brakes. Its core strategy boils down to four words: controlling the pace.

**One key point: the Fed has neither confirmed that it will cut rates nor firmly denied it. So what’s the market doing? It’s already treating "rate cuts in the future" as a usable trading premise.**

## Why does the market think this time is dovish?

Honestly, in the current environment, as long as the Fed doesn’t desperately emphasize "we will keep high interest rates for a long time," the market’s first reaction is dovish.

In this meeting, the Fed kept talking about "watching the data," but didn’t specify when to cut rates. It also didn’t issue particularly strong warnings about the risks of easing financial conditions too early. This essentially defaults to one thing: you can trade on the story of rate cuts in advance, but I don’t guarantee when I’ll actually act.

To put it plainly: you can dream, but don’t expect me to realize it immediately.

## Why is the Fed still stepping on the brakes?

The reason is quite practical. Inflation is indeed easing, but it’s still some distance from the 2% target. Employment is cooling down, but not to the "very bad" level yet. The financial markets overall haven’t shown big turbulence.

In other words, there’s currently no pressure to "cut rates immediately."

On the other hand, if they loosen now, the market might get overly excited and perhaps bring inflation issues back. So the Fed chose the safest route: neither making active promises nor outright denying, just keeping this stance suspended. The market’s expectations and the interest rate path are based on data guidance, and everything still has variables.