Recently, a phenomenon worth pondering has emerged—silver seems to have taken a short-term breather, but whether this pause can be sustained in the long run remains a big question.

According to the latest report from JPMorgan Chase, the US has not yet imposed tariffs on precious metals, giving silver some breathing room in the short term. But this is like a calm surface with undercurrents swirling beneath. The divergence between silver and gold trends is becoming apparent, and the underlying logic behind this warrants further exploration.

**The Triple Dilemma of Silver**

First, let's talk about industrial demand. The problems caused by high prices are more severe than expected—demand from the solar energy industry, amounting to tens of millions of ounces, is under threat. Several leading photovoltaic companies have already begun promoting "copper replacing silver" technology, with related capacity conversions expected to start materializing from Q2. In other words, silver's position in the green energy industry may be gradually eroded.

Next, on the investment side. ETF holdings are generally increasing through 2025, but there's a painful detail—while silver prices have recently risen, major ETFs have experienced a net outflow of about 18 million ounces. The net long positions on COMEX are also continuously shrinking. What does this indicate? Institutional investors are quietly turning cautious, even to the point of "voting with their feet."

Inventory pressures have not been fully alleviated. Although they have eased somewhat, overall levels remain high, like the Damocles sword hanging overhead, continuously suppressing the space for price increases.

**Why is Gold Different?**

In contrast, the support logic for gold is much more solid. Central banks are continuously buying gold, geopolitical risk hedging demand always exists, and market expectations of policy easing add to this. These factors combine to make gold's structural support more robust.

**What Is the Market Asking?**

When silver faces dual pressures of technological substitution and investment outflows, can its "industrial metal + financial attribute" dual narrative still hold? That’s a big question.

Will the divergence between gold and silver trends hint at internal capital reallocation within the precious metals market? Could it even mean that gold is re-establishing its relative advantage within the traditional safe-haven asset framework?

Short-term policy easing has indeed restored some sentiment, but the fundamental pressures in the medium to long term are real. These two forces are like a tug-of-war over silver. Investors should be alert to potential volatility.

What’s your view? To what extent will high prices suppress silver’s industrial demand? When allocating precious metals, do you tend to follow the trend with gold, or do you still have confidence in silver?