This week's gold performance has been quite interesting—first soaring to a high of 4642, then plunging directly to 4536, with over 100 points of fluctuation back and forth, which is really quite a rollercoaster.

Entering next week, there are several important time points that must be closely watched. On the 17th, the US retail sales data will be released. If the data falls short of expectations, risk aversion funds may flow into gold, providing support for gold prices. However, the real big event is the CPI inflation data on the 22nd—if the data is below expectations, it could stimulate a rise in gold prices; otherwise, it may be suppressed. Additionally, speeches by Federal Reserve officials will influence market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, indirectly affecting gold price trends.

From a technical perspective, 4530 is a very critical support level. If it can hold here, the rebound space could reach around 4610-4620. However, the pressure at 4610 and 4642 is quite significant, and prices often tend to fall back after reaching these levels.

Overall, next week is most likely to see a sideways trend, leaning towards a decline. Therefore, a strategy of shorting on rallies is more prudent. If the CPI data is poor and inflation remains high, gold could even break below 4536. Conversely, if the data is good and inflation declines, it will depend on whether the 4600-4642 range can be effectively broken through; only after a breakout should we consider going long.

Finally, a reminder: during the CPI release period, volatility is usually quite intense. When trading, be sure to set proper take-profit and stop-loss points. Never chase the market or panic sell, as that’s a recipe for losing money.