What will be the growth trajectory of the US economy in 2026? Institutional analysis suggests that the growth rate will exhibit a clear "front-loading" characteristic.

The first half of the year is a critical period. The quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate is expected to reach 3.5% in Q1, then decline to 2.5% in Q2, and further decrease to 2.1% in Q3 and Q4. In other words, the full-year growth rate may be between 2.5% and 2.8%, already surpassing the market's general expectation of 2.0-2.1%.

Why can the first half sustain such strong growth? Mainly due to the impact of fiscal policy. Accelerated depreciation incentives for enterprises and a 25% increase in personal tax refunds will concentrate their effects in Q1 and Q2, contributing about 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points to GDP. Additionally, the negative impact of tariffs in 2025 will significantly ease in 2026, combined with the Federal Reserve's rate cuts (expected once in June and once in September), leading to improved financial conditions.

However, the "fiscal vacuum" in the second half is a hidden risk. The stimulative effects will gradually diminish, and the labor market will face pressure—unemployment rate remaining around 4.5%, with monthly employment growth of only 11,000, far below the breakeven point. This suggests that both consumption and investment may slow down simultaneously.

The takeaway for investors is that in the first half, they can overweight consumption and cyclical assets to capitalize on policy dividends, but should prepare for a shift in the second half by switching to defensive allocations to avoid valuation compression risks caused by growth deceleration.