RIVER's recent trend reveals several clues. From the market performance, the big players have been frequently pushing the needle between 26-29, secretly accumulating 1-2 million short positions, but there is a clear lack of determination to break upward—what does this behavior typically indicate? Many believe that high levels are hard to grasp, but the real issue isn't difficulty; it's the true intention of the big players.

Based on the rhythm of this accumulation of short positions, it is expected that the top will be around 29.8. Why is that? From the perspective of capital operation logic, the big players seem to be preparing for the next move—after accumulating enough short positions, the subsequent actions are likely to be a combination of dumping spot holdings and withdrawing contracts. This isn't about a new high failing to break through; it's that they never intended to let it reach a new high in the first place.

There is a key time point to watch: four days until the unlock, during which an estimated three days of downward correction are expected. When the unlock day arrives, the price may directly crash back to around 5, and then the game will truly be over. In other words, tonight's high position is very likely to be the top within the next five days. For traders who have already taken high-level shorts, it's best not to act during these five days—let time help verify your logic.

But the risk must also be clearly stated—if the short positions are too heavily accumulated, a sudden reversal with a sharp rally isn't impossible, and that could easily lead to traps. Therefore, patience is required during this period, not impulsiveness.