Recently, the trading status has been somewhat abnormal. Looking back over the past week, I was actually on a winning streak before Bitcoin surged significantly, but since the market started moving, I’ve been losing — large positions losing, small positions losing, even my Ant positions are in the red. Many veteran crypto traders around me have also been cut during the same period, which made me start to reflect.

I think this might be related to traders like us who have gone through multiple cycle phases. After several bear markets, our confidence in the long-term cycle has wavered, and a bearish mindset has taken root. This cautious attitude might actually be what the market manipulators are targeting — they specifically create volatility during these delicate psychological states.

Long-term traders feel comfortable if they get the direction right, but if they’re wrong, they have to endure the pain. Short-term fluctuations are more frequent, testing both risk tolerance and profit expectations.

The key now is to see how the weekly candle closes tomorrow. Looking at Bitcoin, 95500 is an important support level. If the weekly close can stay above this level, then the possibility of reaching for 98217, 99000, or even the 100,000 mark still exists. Conversely, if it cannot hold, it might turn into a dull, slow bleed market, gradually drifting downward.

Ethereum currently resembles a situation of "The king is absent, and the monkeys are ruling." If Bitcoin continues to stay strong, Ethereum will need to break through the previous high resistance at 3425; if Bitcoin loses momentum, Ethereum’s rise will just be a bluff.

Honestly, regardless of who is shouting about big cycles or institutional entry stories, from a macro perspective, we are still in a bear market, not a bull market. The market is never short of noise; free calls have no cost, but those who dare to watch, shout, and act must pay the price — they have to pay transaction fees and bear capital risks.

Even with minimal capital, every observation and decision should be meaningful.

My current strategy is to firmly remain bearish on the big cycle, while trying small short-term mistakes without resisting trades. If I lose, it’s just small funds, with a 200% margin, I will cut losses decisively. Even if I miss the long-term bull run this time, I won’t regret it. I’ll slowly find my feel and position in the short term, then re-enter with a large position at low leverage to short again. I believe time will return what I’ve lost, paying back both principal and interest.