At 1:45 AM, friends watching the market should also be feeling the torment of this choppy行情. ETH/USDT has a volatility of less than 0.02% within an hour, triggering that familiar pattern alert once again. This kind of行情 indeed tests patience, but let's calmly break it down.

Continuing with the recent viewpoints, the main trend remains unchanged—still leaning bullish. From the movement since last night until now, the price has been oscillating within a narrow channel of 3329 to 3339, a typical sideways accumulation pattern. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a clear directional signal. Currently, there’s no significant breakthrough at key levels on the daily or 4-hour charts, and there’s no obvious divergence in the capital flow. Maintaining a bullish outlook under these conditions is reasonable.

From a technical perspective, the details are quite interesting. The daily ADX surged to 41.6, indicating a strong trending bullish momentum. The large gap between +DI (27.1) and -DI (11.2) clearly favors the bulls. OBV shows continuous net capital inflow, with an increase of 16.1%, and the CMF remains at a strong level of 0.160, supporting buying pressure. Looking at the 4-hour chart, ADX at 22.0 also points to strengthening bullish momentum, with OBV and CMF showing mild inflows. The 1-hour MFI has indeed hit an extreme overbought level of 82, which carries a short-term correction risk, but don’t be scared—this doesn’t change the larger cycle’s bullish logic. The multi-timeframe consistency score is 76.7%, indicating a solid bullish trend.

An interesting observation is the liquidity divergence across exchanges. The buy and sell orders across the entire network are basically balanced (buy 50.8% vs sell 49.2%), but a closer look reveals divergence. Buy orders are concentrated on several mainstream platforms, while some compliant platforms show a slight dominance of sell orders. This reminds us that data from a single exchange can be misleading; a true breakout depends on the collective performance of the entire network.

From the position and capital flow perspective, the current price is in the middle zone of multi-timeframe relative positioning, with moderate risk. Large order flow statistics show a slight advantage for sell orders, with a net outflow of about 550,000 USD, serving as a short-term warning signal. The market’s greed index is at 49, maintaining a neutral sentiment. Reminder: today is US President Inauguration Day, a high-risk event, so it’s advisable to either hold light positions and observe or wait patiently.

What about specific trading strategies? Since the main trend is bullish but the short-term is overbought with event risks, the most rational approach is to wait for a pullback before going long—avoid chasing highs. The ideal entry zone should be around 3310-3320, which is where the 1-hour MA50 is located and also a previous small platform support. Stop-loss can be set below 3290. Targets are first resistance at 3356, then 3378. Given the position and event risks, position size should be controlled at 10-15%, absolutely no heavy trading.

Further refining position and strategy, the current price is oscillating within the key zone of 3306-3356. Looking downward, the first support is at 3305 (Pivot S1), with strong supports at 3278 (Fibonacci 78.6%) and 3234 (daily MA200). Looking upward, the first resistance is at 3356 (Pivot R1), with a breakout target of 3378 (Pivot R2). If it falls below 3305, it may further test supports at 3278 or even 3234; but based on liquidity divergence, if buy orders can sustain the daily and 4-hour bullish structures, there’s still a chance for an upward breakout. The current position is neither the worst nor the best; more patience is needed for the market to make its choice.

A market insight is that such narrow-range oscillations are the ultimate test of patience, often representing the calm before a big move. On major event days, rather than trying to catch the wrong行情, it’s better to miss it and prioritize capital preservation.

【Key Position References】
Direction: Long
Stop Loss: 3290 USDT
Support Levels: 3305 / 3278 / 3234 USDT
Resistance Levels: 3356 / 3378 / 3418 USDT
Take Profit: 3378 USDT

⚠️ Current trend strength is moderate; closely monitor price movements. Consider taking profits early if encountering resistance.

⚠️ Risk Warning: This analysis is for technical reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously according to your own risk tolerance.