2026-01-18 18:28:38

Looking at the financial markets is like studying snow layer structures — on the surface, it seems calm, but deep down, there is a complex history of accumulation. The best way to study is not guesswork, but digging deep and observing the texture of each layer.

We analyze history through charts and examine the interaction between events and prices using data. Today, I want to discuss the mutual influence among $BTC, gold, stocks (mainly tech giants in the Nasdaq 100), and US dollar liquidity.

This topic is very interesting. Those who are bearish on cryptocurrencies, superstitious about gold, or involved in the financial circle have recently been excited about the same thing — $BTC has become the worst-performing mainstream asset class in 2025. Gold enthusiasts might ask: You say $BTC is a tool to counter the existing financial order, but it’s not even as good as gold? Stock believers are gloating: Isn’t $BTC supposed to be a high-beta asset of the Nasdaq? These days, it’s not even that.

It sounds like $BTC has failed. But actually, no. I want to use a series of charts and analyses to illustrate a point: $BTC’s performance actually perfectly aligns with its inherent characteristics. It is not an independent variable but a barometer that follows the liquidity of fiat currencies — especially US dollar liquidity. When dollar liquidity is abundant, high-risk assets benefit; when liquidity tightens, safe-haven assets and stable currencies come under pressure.

This is not a failure; it is a true reflection of $BTC as a risk asset. Understanding this is the key to truly understanding why it performs the way it does now.

BTC0.17%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TaxEvader

· 3h ago

Girls, to put it simply, it's a liquidity game. Don't be fooled by appearances. --- During periods of dollar tightening, BTC behaves like this. It's normal. What are you talking about? --- That deep pit digging part was truly brilliant. Financial markets are like that; surface articles are meaningless. --- What are gold fans so proud of? Once liquidity loosens, you'll see who the real asset is. --- It's not failure; it's just different sensitivity to reactions. This old brother's analysis is clear. --- So BTC is just a puppet of the Federal Reserve? Then I guess being bearish on the dollar means being bullish on BTC. --- Is 2025 the worst? I think there's still the Russian ruble... --- High-beta assets indeed haven't been achieved, but that's not BTC's problem; it's a trading issue. --- Interesting, using a snow layer structure as a metaphor is quite vivid, but the final conclusion is still "play with the dollar."

View OriginalReply0

NftRegretMachine

· 3h ago

I think this snow layer analogy is pretty good, but to be honest, most people in the market don't have the patience to dig deeper. They just like to look at the surface layer and then guess blindly how BTC will fall. It's indeed ironic that BTC can't outperform gold, but the author is right—liquidity is the core, and I buy into this logic. Wait, he said BTC is a true reflection of risk assets... then why are some people still treating it as a safe haven asset to speculate? Isn't that contradictory?

View OriginalReply0

TokenomicsTherapist

· 3h ago

To be honest, the analogy of the "snow layer structure" sounds good, but the key still depends on how the Federal Reserve plays it. When liquidity tightens, everything is useless; these days, no one can outmatch macroeconomics.

View OriginalReply0

OffchainWinner

· 3h ago

Uh, this logic feels a bit forced to me... When USD liquidity tightens, BTC shouldn't fall together with risk assets. To put it simply, this year hasn't been as strong as expected, no need to force a reason. Gold and stocks have been winning big, but that doesn't mean BTC has no prospects. We've heard this liquidity explanation many times; the key still depends on future policies. I think instead of studying the snow layer, it's better to look directly at market sentiment... When sentiment is good, everything rises; when sentiment is bad, everything falls. This time, we really should reflect. Not all declines can be explained by liquidity.

View OriginalReply0

TommyTeacher1

· 3h ago

The snow layer structure analogy is brilliant, but to be honest, most people just look at the surface snow and start betting... Really, the key perspective is dollar liquidity. Many are still tangled up in whether BTC is going up or down, not realizing they're actually playing with the Fed. Alright, then let's wait until liquidity loosens before discussing high beta assets.

View OriginalReply0

RektCoaster

· 3h ago

Yeah, I agree with this logic. USD liquidity is the real market mover. Wait, the layered structure you mentioned somehow reminds me of signs before a collapse, haha. BTC is essentially a risk asset. Wanting both safe-haven properties and growth is inherently contradictory. But these days, those still worried about BTC losing to gold haven't quite seen the bigger picture. When the dollar tightens, everyone just lies flat. I've seen through this a long time ago.

View OriginalReply0