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Winter escalation in Eastern Europe is reshaping the conflict. Poland ships vintage MiG-29s, Japan deploys military vehicles, Spain contributes radar systems—but here's the thing: these are mostly hand-me-downs, equipment the donors can afford to part with. Kyiv gets support, sure. Just not the game-changing kind. Western assistance remains constrained, revealing a difficult truth about alliance limits during prolonged conflict. For markets watching commodity prices and energy volatility, this geopolitical friction continues to ripple through.