The global financial markets are undergoing a major turning point—uncertainty over the Federal Reserve leadership, escalating US tariffs, and re-pricing of major asset classes—all converging to fundamentally rewrite investment logic.

First, let's look at the Fed. Powell's term ends in May, with four candidates each presenting their own views. This is not only a watershed moment for monetary policy but also directly impacts the future direction of the US dollar. The dollar is already showing signs of strain, depreciating 9% over the past 12 months. If the Fed's independence is further weakened, the reserve currency status could be at risk.

Among the candidates, if the more aggressive one takes the helm, a rate cut wave could accelerate, causing the dollar to plummet significantly; a moderate candidate would imply a slow depreciation; and some propose a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" combo, which the market is still trying to interpret. Regardless, a weakening dollar seems highly probable.

On the US side, tariffs haven't calmed down. An additional 10% tariff on European companies and unresolved Supreme Court rulings keep the clouds of trade war looming larger. This uncertainty, coupled with dollar depreciation pressures, has caused global asset allocation to stall.

Conversely, gold has become the biggest winner in this upheaval. Under the triple boost of Fed policy vacuum, dollar weakness, and central bank gold purchases, gold prices have hit record highs. Goldman Sachs has already set a target of $4,900. This isn't baseless speculation but backed by solid logic.

Turning to the domestic market, after the A-share Shanghai Composite broke through 4,000 points, the sentiment shifted. The China Securities Regulatory Commission began emphasizing "preventing large swings," and the previously hot AI and commercial aerospace concepts are cooling off. Small-cap stocks are wildly volatile, and whether large caps have opportunities depends on allocation strategies.

The pendulum between growth and value stocks is becoming more extreme, and one-sided bets are risky. It might be better to consider balanced allocation or even contrarian strategies—quietly positioning in overlooked stocks when everyone is bearish on value stocks.

So, the question is: how should the main investment theme in 2026 be positioned? Follow the gold trend, bottom fish in suppressed US assets, or stick to a balanced approach in A-shares? Each choice has its logic, but ultimately, the risk-reward balance depends on your own judgment.

Share in the comments how you plan to navigate the opportunities woven by these three major variables.