Gate Square “Creator Certification Incentive Program” — Recruiting Outstanding Creators!
Join now, share quality content, and compete for over $10,000 in monthly rewards.
How to Apply:
1️⃣ Open the App → Tap [Square] at the bottom → Click your [avatar] in the top right.
2️⃣ Tap [Get Certified], submit your application, and wait for approval.
Apply Now: https://www.gate.com/questionnaire/7159
Token rewards, exclusive Gate merch, and traffic exposure await you!
Details: https://www.gate.com/announcements/article/47889
TANSSI's trend makes me a bit conflicted. Looking at my model data, this coin is indeed in an extremely oversold position, but the problem is that the trading volume is almost gone, which becomes a bigger hidden risk.
First, let's talk about the data. RSI across multiple timeframes has fallen below 35, with the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI entering the top 10% of historical oversold levels. Although the MACD shows negative values, the histogram difference is only -0.00017, indicating that momentum is almost exhausted. After a 32.72% plunge within 24 hours, the 15-minute chart has shown some signs of rebound, rising by 1.47%.
From a probability perspective, the likelihood of a short-term rebound from this kind of volume-price divergence is about 65%. But there's a big problem—when trading volume is insufficient, rebounds are usually small, averaging only 3-5%, and failure rates are also not low. I recalculated the risk-reward ratio, and currently, the risk-to-reward ratio doesn't even reach 1:1, far below my entry standard.
Therefore, my conclusion is to **wait and see**. The current price is at 0.01 USDT, and I need two conditions to be met simultaneously: trading volume recovers to above 50M daily average, and the 1-hour RSI breaks through 45. Only then will I reassess whether to enter the market.
To be honest, if I have unrealized losses recently, I must strictly control my position size. Don't try to quickly recover losses on low-liquidity assets, as this often leads to pitfalls. Quantitative models are prone to failure during abnormal liquidity conditions, and the current market is exactly in this high-risk zone.