When Silver Becomes Unaffordable: How Solar Makers Are Banking on Copper as a Game-Changing Alternative

The photovoltaic industry faces an unprecedented cost crisis. Silver’s unmatched electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity symbol—the α (alpha) coefficient measuring heat transfer efficiency—have made it indispensable for solar cell production. Yet the white metal’s price trajectory tells a cautionary tale: from a 5% component cost in 2023 to 14% by September 2025, silver has become an unwieldy burden for manufacturers already operating on razor-thin margins.

The numbers paint a stark picture. In September 2025, silver hovered around US$42-46 per ounce. By January 2025, it exploded to an all-time peak of US$93.77—a doubling in just four months and a near-tripling from the prior year. For an industry built on competitive pricing, such volatility is unsustainable.

The Supply Chain Squeeze and China’s Dominance

China controls the narrative in solar manufacturing, commanding over 80% of global PV capacity across polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. This concentration means Chinese manufacturers face the brunt of silver price shocks. At the same time, surging demand from electronics and investment portfolios has intensified the competition for limited supplies.

According to market analysts, this imbalance between industrial demand and constrained supply has squeezed module manufacturer margins to breaking points. The solution? Technological pivots away from silver dependency.

The Copper Bet: Technical Feasibility and Trade-Offs

Enter copper—the red metal that costs roughly 22,000% less per troy ounce than silver. Leading Chinese solar producers including LONGi Green Energy (SHA:601012), JinkoSolar Holding (NYSE:JKS), and Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy (SHA:600732) have already announced or begun transitioning to copper-metallized solar cells.

Copper offers compelling advantages: abundant supplies, diversified sourcing networks, and significantly lower costs. However, it presents technical hurdles. The metal’s conductivity, while respectable, trails silver’s performance. More critically, copper oxidizes and degrades over time, raising long-term durability concerns for field installations exposed to harsh environmental conditions.

The manufacturing process compounds these challenges. TOPCon (tunnel oxide passivated contact) technology, currently commanding 70% of the solar market, requires extreme processing temperatures that complicate copper integration. Back-contact (BC) cell architectures, by contrast, prove more copper-friendly with less demanding thermal requirements.

Performance Reality: Copper-Based Cells Closing the Gap

Recent field data challenges the assumption that copper-based solar cells underperform. New-generation copper-metallized designs are achieving efficiency levels approaching traditional silver-based modules. Some installations have even demonstrated improvements in mechanical strength and module durability—critical factors for long-term reliability.

BC modules particularly shine in comparative studies. Field evidence suggests BC technology generates approximately 11% more energy over a module’s lifetime versus TOPCon equivalents—a substantial advantage that could offset any performance compromises from copper substitution.

Market Trajectory: What Happens to Silver Demand?

The November 2025 Silver Institute report projected a 2% decline in industrial silver demand to 665 million ounces in 2025. Notably, solar sector silver consumption dropped roughly 5% despite record-high PV installations globally—a telling shift driven by reduced silver per-module consumption.

Yet markets remain fluid. With TOPCon expected to dominate 70% of capacity through 2026 and BC cell manufacturing costs unlikely to reach parity with TOPCon until the decade’s end, industry observers anticipate a coexistence phase between 2028-2030. This extended transition window means silver demand stabilization rather than dramatic collapse—at least in the near term.

The structural shift underway represents more than isolated cost-cutting; it signals how competitive pressure and raw material constraints reshape industrial design at scale.