Silver's Supply Crisis May Have Triggered Buffett's Final Major Wager at Berkshire Hathaway

The February 14 Disclosure Could Reveal a Historic Investment Move

Warren Buffett concluded his tenure as Berkshire Hathaway’s chief executive on January 1, as previously announced. With quarterly 13-F filings set to surface on February 14—45 days following the close of Q4 2025—observers widely anticipate they will unveil whether the legendary investor made one last significant allocation before his departure. Speculation centers on a substantial silver position accumulated during his final weeks in charge.

This conjecture isn’t baseless. The conditions in today’s precious metals market bear an uncanny resemblance to circumstances Buffett himself analyzed and acted upon decades earlier. Understanding his investment thesis on silver offers insight into what his institutional portfolio might reveal next month.

How Buffett’s Silver Analysis from the 1990s Remains Relevant Today

During a Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in the late 1990s, when questioned about the firm’s $910 million silver acquisition, Buffett outlined his valuation methodology for non-yielding assets using elementary supply-and-demand economics.

His observation was straightforward: annual jeweler and industrial demand for silver totaled roughly 800 million ounces annually, while new production furnished merely 500 million ounces. An additional 150 million ounces entered circulation through recycling efforts. This left a persistent 150-million-ounce gap annually, satisfied only by depleting above-ground reserves.

Buffett reasoned that since silver is a byproduct metal—extracted alongside copper, zinc, and other commodities—miners cannot easily expand output in response to higher prices. Meanwhile, silver’s role as the periodic table’s most electrically conductive element ensured sustained industrial demand. Without supply growth or demand contraction materializing, price appreciation represented the inevitable market correction.

That thesis proved prophetic. When Berkshire eventually liquidated its 111 million ounces, the position generated a $97 million gain, vindicating Buffett’s market analysis from years prior.

2025’s Market Dynamics Echo the Conditions That Triggered Buffett’s Bet

Fast forward to 2026, and the parallels are striking. While final 2025 production figures remain unreleased, projections indicated 835 million ounces in new silver supply against 1.15 billion ounces in total global demand—a continuation of four consecutive years where consumption substantially outpaced production.

Annual deficits have ranged from 79 million to 249 million ounces across this window, further straining existing inventories. What’s particularly notable is that silver’s dramatic 144% price surge throughout 2025 failed to stimulate meaningful production expansion. The Silver Institute data showed 2025 output at approximately 835 million ounces—a negligible 2% increase from 2024 levels.

Buffett’s decades-old diagnosis of the silver market dysfunction—supply rigidity meeting robust demand—materialized again in 2025. For an investor of his caliber, such a replication of his historical playbook would have been impossible to overlook.

Why the Timing and Context Make a Large Position Plausible

Buffett has maintained a net seller stance across equity markets for three consecutive years. Concurrently, Berkshire Hathaway maintains a historic $381.7 billion cash reserve. These dual developments suggest a strategist evaluating alternative deployment options as his leadership tenure concludes.

Against this backdrop, executing a position in an asset class where his own framework identifies compelling structural imbalances—particularly one matching conditions from his most successful precious metals trade—would represent a logical capstone to his career. The simplicity and historical precedent of such a move may have proved irresistible for an investor considering his legacy.

February 14 will ultimately resolve this speculation. Until then, the convergence of market fundamentals with Buffett’s established investment principles leaves room for possibility.