Rigetti Computing: When Stock Surge Outpaces Business Growth

The Valuation Disconnect Nobody’s Talking About

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has become the quantum computing darling that everyone’s watching — its stock price has climbed 184% over the past twelve months, propelling the company to an $8.4 billion market valuation. Yet beneath the surface lies a troubling divergence: while investor enthusiasm has pushed valuations to roughly 409 times current-year sales, the actual business momentum tells a very different story.

Revenue Is Going the Wrong Direction

The numbers paint a concerning picture. In Q3 of last year, Rigetti posted quarterly revenue of just $1.95 million, marking a decline from $2.38 million in the same quarter the previous year. Year-to-date performance shows the same trend — first nine months revenue totaled $5.22 million compared to $8.52 million in the prior-year period.

For a company that supposedly sits at the frontier of quantum computing innovation, this backward revenue trajectory raises fundamental questions about near-term commercialization potential and customer demand.

The Gap Between Hype and Reality

Rigetti’s recent achievements include a $5.8 million research contract with the U.S. Air Force and continued technical advancement in quantum systems. These are legitimate milestones for a quantum leadership contender in this emerging technology space. However, investors seem to be pricing in a dramatically different timeline than what current business results suggest.

As a young player in an early-stage technological category, Rigetti’s temporary sales decline could reflect market timing — prospective customers potentially waiting for systems with higher qubit counts before committing to purchases. But this explanation only stretches so far when the stock’s valuation has become so disconnected from revenue reality.

What This Means for Quantum Computing Investors

The quantum computing sector itself remains compelling long-term, but not all exposure vehicles are created equal. Alternative approaches to quantum technology advancement exist, and more diversified tech companies with quantum initiatives offer different risk-reward profiles than pure-play quantum specialists trading at extreme multiples.

For those seeking quantum leadership exposure, the critical question isn’t whether the technology will matter — it’s whether Rigetti’s current valuation leaves room for meaningful upside before the company can demonstrate that revenue growth aligns with stock price gains.