What's Next for Fastenal? Breaking Down the Upcoming Q4 Results

Fastenal Company FAST will unveil its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 20 before market open. This earnings release comes at a critical juncture, as investors weigh the company’s ability to maintain momentum in an uncertain economic environment.

The Numbers Investors Are Watching

When does Q4 start delivering results? For Fastenal, expectations are set at 26 cents per share in EPS—representing a solid 13% year-over-year jump. The consensus estimate for revenue stands at $2.05 billion, marking a 12.2% increase from the prior-year quarter’s $1.82 billion.

However, it’s worth noting that Fastenal has had a mixed recent history at the earnings plate. In the most recent quarter, both EPS and sales missed estimates, though they still grew at healthy rates (11.5% and 11.7% respectively). Looking back four quarters, the company beat expectations once, missed twice, and matched consensus on the remaining occasion—averaging a 1% shortfall.

What’s Driving the Q4 Performance

Revenue Outlook

Fastenal’s top-line growth in Q4 appears positioned to accelerate, fueled by strategic pricing adjustments and targeted growth initiatives. The company’s digital expansion, coupled with enhanced inventory management and improved warehouse picking speeds, has created a buffer against industrial sector headwinds.

November 2025 provided a preview: daily sales surged 11.8% year-over-year to $33 million, though they dipped 1.5% sequentially from October. By end market, Heavy Manufacturing and Other Manufacturing posted double-digit gains of 13% and 12.9%, while Non-residential Construction climbed 8.4%. Within product categories, Fasteners (+14.6%) and Safety (+8.1%) led the charge.

Analyst models suggest average daily sales for the full Q4 will reach $32.6 million—a 12.4% increase from the year-prior period.

Margin Expansion Potential

The bottom line should benefit from a favorable price-to-cost dynamic, the ongoing fastener expansion initiative, and disciplined cost management. Warehouse automation, streamlined delivery networks, and higher-margin private-label product sales are expected to provide meaningful tailwinds.

Offsetting these gains: unfavorable customer/product mix in certain segments, elevated freight and overhead costs, and macroeconomic uncertainty. The consensus view is that operational leverage from revenue growth will outweigh these drags.

For Q4, selling and administrative expenses (as a percentage of sales) are forecast to shrink 90 basis points to 25% year-over-year. Gross margins are expected to compress 40 basis points sequentially to 44.9% due to seasonal factors, though they should expand 10 basis points annually.

The Forecast Model’s Take

Here’s where it gets interesting: Fastenal carries an Earnings ESP (surprise probability metric) of -0.64%, suggesting the model leans slightly bearish on an upside surprise. Combined with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), the overall signal is cautiously optimistic but not aggressively bullish for an earnings beat.

The Verdict for Investors

Fastenal’s Q4 story appears to be one of steady execution amid mixed signals. Revenue momentum looks genuine, margins have room to breathe, but execution risk remains. The stock carries the characteristics of a solid hold for believers in the industrial sector’s gradual recovery, though it may not deliver the fireworks some short-term traders are seeking.