Forecasted market weekly expenses exceed $2.7 million: How Polymarket became the absolute winner

The prediction market is entering a period of explosive growth. According to the latest data, the weekly fee revenue in the prediction market has surpassed $2.7 million, setting a new record. What is behind this figure? Why is Polymarket able to dominate while facing global regulatory crackdowns?

Market Activity Behind the Fee Surge

The true face of the fee structure

This $2.7 million weekly fee revenue is not evenly distributed. Based on data analysis:

Polymarket alone contributes nearly 30% of the fee revenue, a proportion far exceeding other competitors. The high fees in the 15-minute price fluctuation markets reflect the extremely high trading frequency of these short-term contracts—participants are continuously betting in rapidly changing market conditions.

Why did the fees suddenly surge

The sharp increase in fees is not accidental. From related information, the application scenarios of prediction markets are expanding rapidly:

• Political Predictions: Portugal and Hungary’s regulators have blocked Polymarket around election times, indicating that the trading volume of election prediction contracts has become significant enough to attract government attention.
• Financial Predictions: Active trading in prediction contracts on topics like Federal Reserve chair nominations and Bitcoin prices.
• Personality Predictions: A user has accumulated over $270,000 in profits solely through “Elon Musk” themed predictions, showing that niche topics also maintain stable trading volumes.
• Emerging Assets: The FDV forecast trading volume for MegaETH before launch exceeded $7 million.

These diverse application scenarios are transforming prediction markets from niche tools into mainstream financial instruments.

Polymarket’s Absolute Dominance and Concerns

Market Position Unshakable

Polymarket’s position in the prediction market is approaching monopoly. The weekly fee revenue of $787,000 indicates that Polymarket is becoming the primary channel for real-time information aggregation—faster than official announcements and traditional media.

This also explains why regulators are becoming nervous. Portugal blocked Polymarket before the election results were announced, and Hungary’s regulators temporarily shut down the domain citing “organizing gambling activities as illegal.” This is not only a crackdown on gambling but also a reflection that prediction markets are challenging traditional information power structures—they aggregate public sentiment faster than official channels.

Risks Behind High Fees

High fees mean frequent trading, but also accumulating risks. Related reports mention traders manipulating the market by buying “UP” stocks on Polymarket while simultaneously executing $1 million XRP purchases on Binance to push prices up, ultimately earning $233,000 in profit. Although such market manipulation was eventually exposed, it reveals obvious vulnerabilities in Polymarket’s automated market maker bots—they cannot effectively recognize key dynamic factors like trading volume, liquidity, or adversarial strategies.

Future Trends of Prediction Markets

Opportunities: From Niche to Mainstream

Prediction markets are becoming an important mechanism for information discovery. The upcoming tokenized stock trading platform by NYSE, which will operate with a similar order book model as Polymarket, indicates that traditional finance is recognizing the value of prediction markets.

Challenges: Increasing Regulatory Tightening

However, global regulatory pressure is mounting. The blockages in Portugal and Hungary are just the beginning; more countries may follow. The key question is: are prediction markets fundamentally gambling or financial innovation? The answers from different nations will determine the survival space for Polymarket and similar platforms.

Summary

The weekly fee revenue surpassing $2.7 million marks a turning point where the prediction market industry is shifting from fringe to mainstream. Polymarket’s 28.4% fee share demonstrates its absolute market dominance, but high fees also entail high risks—cases of market manipulation have already emerged, and regulatory crackdowns are accelerating.

From a data perspective, the explosion of prediction markets is real; from a risk perspective, the market still needs better risk control mechanisms and regulatory frameworks. The next key factor will be how various countries’ regulators balance innovation with risk management.