#比特币作为国库资产 Looking at Fidelity's 2026 outlook, I have to be honest: government-level participation indeed changes the game rules, but that's also the most likely time to get caught in a trap.

Over the past decade, I've seen too many people lose everything because of the logic "institutional entry = guaranteed rise." Fidelity is right—under game theory, the probability of countries following the trend and buying Bitcoin has indeed increased, but the key words are overlooked: **demand scale and selling pressure**. When the bear market truly arrives, these institutional assets will also become sellers, and the downward pressure may not be gentler than retail investors.

My alert point is this: the market is currently flooded with voices of "national reserve consensus," which is exactly the narrative that big players love to hype. Short-term funds rush in chasing the trend, but once sentiment reverses, the ones left holding the bag are retail investors who entered later. The four-year cycle hasn't disappeared; the pendulum of fear and greed is still swinging. As long as human nature remains unchanged, the cycle will continue.

I agree with the logic of long-term holding Bitcoin, but the premise is that you must live long enough—not be knocked out by short-term volatility, not be hijacked by narratives, and not chase highs during peaks. Fidelity itself has said this is the beginning stage of a new paradigm, and the real big money has not yet fully entered. The risk of following the trend and eating the meat now is much higher than five years ago.

Manage your risks well and don't be blinded by consensus.