What to Expect When Alaska Air Group Reports Q4 Earnings This Month

Alaska Air Group ALK is poised to unveil its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on January 22, 2026 following the market close. Analysts have taken a notably cautious stance on the carrier’s near-term prospects, with earnings per share estimates slashed by 64.5% over the past two months, now sitting at just 11 cents per share—a dramatic 88.7% retreat compared to the same period last year.

Revenue expectations remain somewhat resilient by comparison. The consensus projection for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues stands at $3.64 billion, reflecting a modest 3.1% year-over-year uptick. Historically, ALK has demonstrated solid execution during earnings seasons, beating analyst forecasts in two of its last four quarterly reports with an average outperformance of 27.03%.

Tailwinds and Headwinds Shaping Q4 Results

Several factors appear positioned to support ALK’s revenue momentum in the upcoming quarter. Passenger demand has shown signs of stabilization across domestic routes, with elevated travel activity during the Thanksgiving period expected to have bolstered the top line substantially. Management’s guidance and preliminary indicators suggest passenger revenues may climb 14.7% from fourth-quarter 2024 levels, while cargo and ancillary services are projected to reach $146.6 million—an 11.1% increase year-over-year.

However, the operating environment remains contested. Geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, and persistent cost inflation present meaningful constraints on operational profitability. These pressures may have created unpredictability in passenger loads and pricing power, potentially limiting the airline’s ability to sustain robust yield growth throughout the quarter.

What the Numbers Suggest About Earnings Timing

ALK currently carries an Earnings Surprise Prediction (ESP) of -6.04% paired with a Zacks Rank #3 designation, a combination that does not align with the statistical markers typically associated with earnings beats. The model’s mixed signals suggest caution is warranted as the reporting date approaches.

Q3 Review: Setting Context

In the third-quarter 2025 report, ALK delivered earnings of $1.05 per share, falling short of the $1.11 consensus and declining 53.3% year-over-year. Operating revenues of $3.76 billion did edge past expectations of $3.75 billion, with a 23% year-over-year surge driven primarily by passenger revenues, which comprised 90.9% of the top line and expanded 21% on steady domestic travel demand.

Transportation Sector Alternatives Worth Monitoring

For investors seeking alternative exposures within the broader transportation industry ahead of the Q4 earnings cycle, two names merit consideration based on modeling criteria.

Canadian National Railway CNI carries an ESP of +0.27% and Zacks Rank #3, with fourth-quarter results scheduled for January 30. Consensus earnings estimates have ticked upward 1.43% to $1.42 per share in the past 60 days. CNI has split its recent earnings reports evenly, beating consensus twice and missing twice, with negligible average misses of 0.1%.

United Parcel Service UPS presents an ESP of +0.64% alongside a Zacks Rank #3 rating. UPS will report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 27, with consensus estimates revised 2.29% higher over the past two months. The logistics giant has demonstrated stronger reliability, beating consensus in three of the last four quarters with an average outperformance of 11.2%.