Gold gains ground against U.S. Treasury bonds in global reserves

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: Gold Gains Ground Against U.S. Treasury Bonds in Global Reserves Original Link: A recent investigation by Ned Davis Research highlights that international gold reserves have increased rapidly over the past few months. Meanwhile, demand for U.S. Treasury bonds continues to weaken.

This behavior allows for an increasingly clear conclusion: gold is gradually displacing U.S. debt as the primary reserve asset globally.

In the report, cited by CNBC, it is emphasized that the gap between global gold reserves and Treasury holdings has been drastically reduced. The magnitude of the adjustment is significant, with the differential falling from $1.23 trillion to the current $162 billion.

According to the report, this reduction is mainly due to a central factor: Donald Trump. The global uncertainty generated by the policies of the Republican leader has eroded the perception of Treasury bonds as a safe haven. U.S. trading partners seek stability in their reserve assets, and in the current context, they consider that the Treasury no longer fully fulfills that role.

Since taking office, Trump has promoted an agenda marked by trade tariffs and geopolitical threats, which has weakened confidence in U.S. debt. Additionally, his repeated criticisms of the Federal Reserve’s independence introduce doubts about the objectivity and predictability of the country’s monetary policy.

All this context has been key for international capital to reduce exposure to Treasury bonds and strengthen gold reserves. This dynamic is reflected in the strong appreciation of the metal since early 2025, when it was trading slightly above $2,600 per ounce, up to the current $4,745 per ounce.

Gold Reserves Will Continue to Grow

In light of the current scenario, all indications suggest that this trend could intensify in the coming months. Eight NATO countries received threats of trade sanctions from Trump after expressing objections to his plan to annex Greenland.

This episode caused a spike in Treasury bond yields, a movement that, as usual, occurs inversely to prices.

Meanwhile, gold prices continue to hit new highs and are approaching the $4,750 per ounce zone. The immediate result is a further weakening of the dollar against major currencies in developed markets. In particular, the DXY index suggests that the greenback will likely struggle to recover the 100-point barrier in the short term.

As of Tuesday, the index shows a decline of about -0.88% compared to Monday’s close, hovering around 98.50 points. Thus, risk aversion associated with U.S. debt assets is consistently spreading across global portfolios.

It is worth mentioning that this situation could worsen further in the event of military movements. For example, the deployment of a group of U.S. aircraft carriers to the Arabian Sea has raised fears of a possible conflict with Iran.

If realized, this scenario could intensify uncertainty and further reduce the gap between international gold reserves and Treasury holdings.

A Low-Intensity Parallel War

The trade war initiated by Washington against several of its strategic partners has not gone unanswered. This is according to Ray Dalio, who believes that retaliation manifests through a low-intensity parallel war. It is a war of capitals, in which sustained migration to gold signals a clear trend.

The main rivals—and also allies—of the United States are reacting as they can, and the decline in demand for U.S. debt appears to be a significant pressure tool. However, for now, a massive sale of Treasury bonds is not expected in the short term, as that scenario would be one of the least favorable for the Trump administration’s economic strategy.