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Strike Gold by Sharing Your TradFi Orders and Pictures!
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#预测市场 I just recently discovered Polymarket, the prediction market platform, and it feels like opening the door to a new world! 🤯
I previously didn't understand what "prediction markets" meant, thought it was just regular gambling, but later I realized it's about reflecting the market's true opinion on an event through trading. These days, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January has risen from 27% to 38%, and it feels like the increase is quite rapid.
Although I haven't participated in trading yet (a bit afraid of losing money), watching these data changes really makes me feel the market sentiment's fluctuations. The prediction probability of $95,000 is also rising, while the probability of dropping to $80,000 is decreasing, as if everyone is betting more optimistically.
I'd like to ask experienced users, can these probability changes in prediction markets be used as a reference indicator for market sentiment? Also, what risks are involved in participating in predictions? It seems like a very interesting direction, and I want to learn more about it gradually.