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History always repeats itself surprisingly. Let's compare two charts:
Chart 1 is the 2022 weekly chart, showing Ethereum's bottom being raised before a deep decline into a bear market.
Chart 2 is the ongoing 2026 weekly chart, with a very high similarity.
Some speculate that Ethereum will enter a deep bear market like in 2022. If it enters a deep bear, Ethereum would need to fall at least another 50%. My view is that it will not enter a bear market; at least in the first half of 2026, it is bullish.
#加密市场行情 First, let's discuss the reasons why Ethereum entered a bear market in 2022. At that time, market sentiment was狂热的, with bubbles driven by retail speculation and narratives, lacking sustained capital inflow. Second, user activity was congested on the expensive mainnet(L1), with poor experience and scalability bottlenecks. As for Ethereum in 2026, institutional entry, spot ETFs, and tokenized assets have created structural demand that can sustainably exceed ETH's new supply. Additionally, L2 applications are widespread, handling most transactions based on Ethereum at low costs. The MVRV Z-score is about 0.47, far below the near 6 value at the top of the 2021-2022 bull market. In summary, this year's Ethereum will not enter a deep bear market. Those with different opinions can discuss together.