2026-01-22 02:48:42

A recent interesting phenomenon has emerged in the market—implied volatility is severely undervalued. According to analyses from some quantitative research institutions, when IV is far below its theoretically reasonable value and Bitcoin is near a historical high, there is usually a significant correction in the past. This model issued a similar warning as early as October last year, and it was remarkably accurate—alerting four days before a large-scale liquidation event occurred.

The logic behind this is actually not complicated: the market tends to be overly confident at high levels, and volatility pricing lags behind. When IV, the so-called "fear index" of the options market, is seriously below the actual risk, it often indicates that market sentiment is about to reverse. Especially when Bitcoin hits new highs, this imbalance signal is particularly worth paying attention to.

But don’t over-interpret it—single indicators are always just references. To truly predict the market, one must consider multiple dimensions of data such as macro liquidity, on-chain capital flows, and derivatives leverage levels.

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AirdropFatigue

· 7h ago

Starting to promote the IV model again, you thought you were a prophet after getting it right once in October last year? Now these signals are everywhere, and too much information actually reduces their reference value. But on the other hand, underestimating volatility is indeed a bit strange. Are big funds setting traps for retail investors? Let's wait and see, anyway I don't have any leverage.

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DefiOldTrickster

· 7h ago

Oh no, it's the same old trick again? I saw through it last October and even placed a short position on options, and ended up making a pretty comfortable profit. Now that IV is so low, I really can't sit still anymore.

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GateUser-a5fa8bd0

· 7h ago

Is this model reliable, or is it just another after-the-fact story? --- IV underestimation has been talked about for a long time, the key is who dares to really short now. --- Honestly, people in the casino are too excited; whether they wake up or not is the real issue. --- Four-day warning? Then why didn't you see the overwhelming calls last October? --- Another conclusion that looks very professional but still depends on macro analysis. --- Considering multi-dimensional data sounds very difficult; it's better to stick with candlestick charts. --- Low volatility warning is indeed a warning, but truly predicting the market? I still trust my own instincts. --- This logic is sound; knowing is one thing, actually making money is another. --- I didn't follow their warning last time; should I follow this time? --- Making money with indicators is what rookies think; smart people have already accumulated at the bottom.

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SquidTeacher

· 7h ago

The undervaluation of IV was indeed predicted during the October last year, but only the brave are still willing to go all-in now.

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DataChief

· 7h ago

October's wave was really amazing. I only understood this logic after reviewing the backtest later. Why does it feel like we're repeating the same script again? As for IV, honestly, it's just gamblers collectively underestimating risk. They will have to pay their debts sooner or later. Single indicators are indeed unreliable, but this time the signal overlay is quite intense. Are we starting to prepare for liquidation again? I'm exhausted.

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LiquidatedDreams

· 7h ago

Here we go again, the old trick of low IV. I witnessed the liquidation feast firsthand during that wave last October. --- Basically, the market has become numb. Everyone thinks it's stable, but the moment it crashes is when it actually happens. --- Relying on a single indicator is useless. I mainly watch candlestick charts and capital flow; the rest is just for listening. --- I believe in the underestimation of volatility, but you still need to wait for long and short position data before acting. Otherwise, who will compensate for the frustration of being all in cash? --- It doesn't matter whether the model is accurate or not. The key is whether you dare to put real money on the line when it triggers. --- A new all-time high always leads to a dump. After so many years of predictions, only this logic has ever truly hit. --- They're starting to push this theory again. It's just their butt dictating their brain. --- IV low = about to surge? Then I'm fully short now, waiting. Remember to give me a hand when I lose money.

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FastLeaver

· 7h ago

Damn, they're pulling this stunt again? I didn't dare to copy the October wave during the live streams, but it really dropped. Now it's undervalued again, right?

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